Ampers & Dot

It’s that time of the year and everyone’s doing it… that’s right: time for some predictions on the future of tech! One of the main aspects that attracts me to tech is that it’s always evolving which means there is always something new to learn. As most of you know, I love to talk about this stuff and really enjoy taking the information that is widely available out there and putting it all together to guess where things are going.

The following predictions (sorted by tech category) come as a result of a lot of research, a bit of professional experience, and a large amount of guessing… So here we go.

Social Networks

• Facebook will continue to grow, reaching over 80 Million registered users
• At some point in 2008 there will be a revolt of users on Facebook (due to another invasive advertising scandal) resulting in a large dropoff of traffic. It will return to normal in under two weeks.
• More small, specifically focused, social networks will pop-up in the first half of the year. By the years’ end they will start going to way of friendster and the big networks will gobble them up.
• Google’s Open Social will help all of this happen as it will make it simpler to build small specialty social networks interoperable, but it will also make it simple for the big networks to adapt their features and user bases.
• MySpace will continue to look more and more like Facebook with each redesign; Facebook will stubbornly not change their look, resulting in third-party applications for customizing the look (think of Skins or Themes) of your Facebook portal.
• Social Networking will take its first real steps into the mobile world through applications, not miniature browser portals. Beyond the simple apps or mobile sites out now, MySpace, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc, will all have their on client-server apps for Windows Mobile, Android, Symbian, and other dumbphones.

Blogs

• Sifry (Technorati) will report the existence of over 100 million blogs and a new quarter million created daily.
• Bloggers will no longer put up with Technorati’s inconsistent service- a clone will steal the market by offering similar service with better functionality.
• More celebs, athletes, and high-profile figures will start blogging as themselves.
• Due to Gawker Media’s (Gizmodo, Valleywag, Wonkette, Consumerist, Kotaku, etc) new commission system for its bloggers, posting will decrease to a readable amount. This will also make Gawker and Valleywag writers stoop to paparazzi-like tactics to get new stories. It won’t be good.
• I’ll keep up the posts for a while, until I get too busy and frustrated that I don’t have time. Then I’ll write a big come-back post apologizing and be extra witty for two straight weeks. This process will repeat a month later.
• When GTA IV comes out I will not post for an entire week.

Mobile Phones

• Apple will release the second gen iPhone. It will come in 8 and 16gb varieties, both sporting 3g HSDPA (high speed download packet access) but not HSUPA (same thing but with Upload).
• Apple will institute stricter measures to ensure the new iPhone can’t be jailbroken or unlocked. Less than 5 days after release the iPhone will be jailbroken and unlocked.
• Android phones will run on ATT, TMobile and VZW. They will be disappointing at first, but by the end of 2008 will be solid competitors in the market.
• HTC’s first “gPhone” will be called ugly by the mass media, mainly because they have no idea what a pda-phone is supposed to look like.
• Google’s Android competition will be won by a pretty simple application that already exists for Windows Mobile. People will ignore this fact and be wowed by its functionality.
• Windows Mobile 7 will be leaked and sadly it will be a disappointment. The interface will be drastically improved, but the functionality will remain sluggish.
• HTC will release a 5mp Camera phone. Nokia will release an 11mp camera phone.
• A large amount of standard phones released in 2008 will have touch screen capabilities. Others will have qwerty pads.
• Bluetooth stereo headsets will gain style points - and bluetooth phone headsets will finally stop sounding so crappy.
• Sprint’s WiMax will still suck and fail to roll-out.
• Here’s a biggie: Google will win the 700mhz Auction for over $8 Billion (I’ll write a lot more on this later)

Web TV

• The continuing spread of Fiber Optics will help IPTV exist through set top boxes thanks to ATT and Verizon (now roll-out in Boston!)
• The networks will continue to adapt their online offerings (see: Hulu), learning that iTunes is a horrible deal for everyone (but apple).
• YouTube spin-offs will keep popping up- the successful ones will be acquired, the unsuccessful ones will fail miserably.
• User Generated Content will always be funny and a huge part of online video, but as hosting sites adapt HD standards there will be a larger market for “Straight to Download”, professionally generated content. People will have trouble adopting this in 2008, mistakenly relating it to “Straight to Video”.
• Online video will start dropping the in-program commercials in favor of over-lay advertising. Some sites will do this well and will be popular. Some sites will integrate far too invasive overlays and upset viewers.
• XBOX 360 will finally gain full IPTV features
• Viral marketing will become even stranger and more random, resulting in a completetly misconstrued add which crosses line in the Controversial/Funny bell-curve and gives the company more negative publicity than anything else.

General Tech

• Apple will release an “ultra portable” laptop - it will weigh around 2lbs and have a 9-10″ screen.
• Asus will release a follow up to the Eee PC, at 9″ and 2.5lbs. The two computers will be put head-to-head by every one of the big tech blogs.
• HDDVD vs BlueRay will not be resolved. The 150 early adopters of each will be pissed. The general public will be happy during holiday season 2008 when prices on each drops below $150.
• LCD TV prices will continue to fall as the first OLED and SED TVs hit the consumer market (at astronomical prices).
• The PS3 will drop in price again, reaching $350. Then it will be release in a variety of colors.
• The Nintendo Wii shortage will get better, but it still won’t be easy to find one.
• A new Wii will be released by December 2008 and it will come in multiple colors, will have a built in DVD drive and multimedia capabilities… but you won’t be able to get one anywhere.
• 2008 will be a slow year for the iPod, but each current version will be re-released in a new array of colors.
• GMail will up each user’s server space to 10GB and will provide an option to upload files for them to host. The service will be free.
• Digg will be bought by a big corporation - and its users will flee requiring the big company to reinvent a user-supported community. This will fail.
• More tech Venture Capitalists will follow the FunnyorDie.com model and invest in Hollywood. This will also fail.
• Quad core computers will be more widely available and affordable. People will still find Vista to be bulky and slow.
• XP will still be an option for new laptops at the end of 2008.
• Linux will continue to gain market share (maybe as large as 3%) through sales of notebooks and desktops at Walmart and Target.

And that’s it

I’ve got a lot more floating around my head, but I think I’ve written enough that something has to end up being correct. My goal is to make this a static page, where I can cross things off as the year goes on. That should be pretty fun, I think.

Lastly, what do you think? I can back-up my thoughts on each of these, as not one is completely random. If you want some justification then ask- I’ll have fun with that. Any you wildly disagree with?

And really lastly- Starting on Sunday and running next week is my second favorite holiday of the year (right after Masters’ weekend but before Halloween) … that’s right: it’s Consumer Electronic Showcase week!!! My lifelong dream is to attend… but obviously that’s not happening this year, so expect some fun commentary as the week progresses.

Enjoy!