Ampers & Dot

A year back I wrote a post about my 2009 Tech Resolutions. Well what’s the point of resolutions if I’m not accountable for them? So today I want to look back and see how well I did. Then, assuming I don’t get too depressed from my ‘09 performance, I’ll make a few new resolutions for the upcoming year. Let’s dive right in:

2009 Resolutions:

• Keep better control over my RSS feeds. This is a big win for me. Over 2009 I was much more flexible with my RSS feeds, in that I cut off of feeds that were too noisy (or too stale) and added feeds that were either more personally focused or specifically relevant. This has made my RSS reader cleaner and easier to manage, while delivering better content than ever.
• Help at least five people quit AOL. I helped three. So that’s not too bad.
• Make 40-50% of tweets replies. I just checked and I’m around 25-30%, about half my goal. It’s a good wake-up-call to see this resolution and something I’m going to try at again.
• Sign up at least three friends to Twitter. I likely helped sign up 20+ people in ‘09, so this was a nice over-performance. Though with mainstream media’s constant spotlight on Twitter, this was fish in a barrel.
• Contribute more in online Forums. Huge failure here. If I contributed 5% in ‘08, then I was likely at 2% in ‘09… I’ll need to keep working on this one.
• Buy ZERO computers. Another big failure. Enough said.
• Redesign my website. Potentially the biggest failure on the list. This will remain a priority in ‘10 (see below).
• Use more features of Facebook and LinkedIn. A small success! In 2009 I started using these networks much, much more. I’m still no power-user, but I’ve uploaded pictures, kept my profile current, and interacted with friends and colleagues.
• Write more conversational blog posts. Another moderate success! I definitely wrote significantly fewer posts in ‘09 (as predicted) but my post-to-comment ration went from 1:2.4 to 1:3.1 - I’m proud of that and would like to keep seeing that number climb.

That’s a relatively successful year! So here’s what I’m planning for 2010:

• Buy ZERO computers. None. Not even one…
• Redesign my website. Just do it. (Ok, now on to new ones:)
• Drop to one Netflix disc. I started 2009 with three discs, but thanks to Netflix Instant (and Xbox 360 integration) I’ve been able to cut back to two. Netflix Instant is an amazing feature and I plan to rely on it only more this year. This will be pretty contingent on Netflix adding more available instant movies, but I don’t see that being too big a problem.
• Evangelize the cloud. I’ve begun relying on Microsoft’s Live Mesh and it’s amazing. Syncing files between multiple computers (between work, home desktop, home laptops, etc (see resolution #1)) Mesh has changed my life. With that and Dropbox, I aim to set up friends and family with these tools - to rely less on faulty external harddrives and more on online options.
• Be more open minded about mobile OS preferences. In 2009 I blogged a LOT about Windows Mobile, some about Android, and a little about BlackBerry… oh, and just a little about the iPhone. I mentioned Palm’s Web OS twice and Symbian almost never. In 2010 I can’t imagine losing interest in Windows Mobile - but I’d like to get more involved with other platforms too as this will help me perfect my mobile expertise. For example, there were dozens of complaints about the iPhone that I didn’t even know about until I got one…
• Engage more online. This is a bit of a leftover from last year, but with greater context. I want to interact with followers more on Twitter, friends on Facebook, connections on LinkedIn, comment more on blogs I read, and answer more questions in forums. The whole point of social media is the “social” part - time for me to contribute more.

So that’s it. Let’s see how well I do.

Have a happy and techy 2010!

If you’ve been watching any primetime TV recently (or walked through Times Square) you may have noticed ads for something called “Droid”. Here’s its main TV spot:

At first you’re thinking - oh, white screen, poppy jingle, must be another iPhone ad! - but then you start paying attention and realize it’s an ad taking direct shots at Apple and you’re left with an ominous mention of the Droid. The Droid, is an upcoming Android OS phone by Motorola, which launches on Verizon next week. As the anti-iPhone commercial tells you, the Droid packs a big pixel-packed touch screen, full keyboard, 5mp camera with flash, multi-tasking abilities, and more - many things the iPhone doesn’t offer.

Verizon’s dropped the hammer on marketing the Droid. They’ve gone all out to push the message of a superior device to the masses. And you know what? It’s worked. It’s worked really, really well.

From people opting into the Droid’s mailing list, to the bigshot blogs covering the pre-launch hype, the Droid’s marketing is a total success.

Hell, Gizmodo published a post today called “How Motorola Stopped Sucking“. Seriously? It was that easy? One phone and their back? And wait, after all that “iDon’t” jargon, it turns out the Droid is actually pretty comparably built to the iPhone. So it basically comes down to: do you want a keyboard? Apple OS or Android? There’s no “better” for either of those questions. But the Droid’s taken a stab at the iPhone claiming superiority.

Where does Droid get off taken a direct approach at a competitor like that!?

Oh, right…

Here’s my take on all this: is the Droid an iPhone killer? No. Is there going to be an iPhone killer? No. The iPhone is going to continue leading the way for at least another generation to come. But, as I’ve said many times before, there is plenty of room for iPhone-killer marketing. I think the Droid’s launch is a perfect example of what the competition should be doing with each launch. Step up the game and force Apple to keep innovating to remain on top.

In the end the Droid looks like a great device and Android 2.0 is probably pretty sweet too. But does it matter for this hype? No, not really. Thanks to the abundance of marketing, there are enough consumers excited about the Droid without ever touching or seeing one that Verizon’s bound to sell out next week. And in the end, when have consumers been excited about a Verizon phone? I say good job all around.

Today, October 6th, is a huge day in history: Microsoft released Windows Mobile 6.5 to the masses. But you already knew that, right? No. Of course you didn’t. And that’s what today’s post is about…

Loyal readers know well that I’m a Windows Mobile user - and I have been for the last six versions of the mobile operating system (Windows Mobile 2003, Windows Mobile 2003SE, Windows Mobile 5, Windows Mobile 6, Windows Mobile 6.1, and now Windows Phone (apparently what they’re now calling Windows Mobile devices from WM6.5 and on)). So obviously I’m a bit excited about the today’s official release of the new build.

But apparently, I’m the only one.

I’ve previously criticized Palm and RIM for soft-launching devices and not stirring up interest the way Apple does, but we’re not talking about a single phone here, we’re talking about a full Operating System, bound to run on 30+ phones by the year’s end. Microsoft even did the right thing: they set a firm launch date (that didn’t overlap with an Apple announcement) and even told a few people about it in advance (go figure!). But today, the big day we’ve all I’ve been looking forward to, I have to ask: where’s the delivery?

In short: it’s just not there. And the sad part is that I just don’t really have an excuse for the lack of enthusiasm from the tech community. Here’s the best rationale I can do:

• The masses love the iPhone. The iPhone is awesome and has stolen all of the mobile thunder for the year (yes, it did come out two years ago, but has gained enough momentum to steamroll the competition).
• The big blogs love the iPhone. Both Gizmodo and Engadget took the opportunity of Windows Mobile 6.5’s launch to bash the new build. Thanks guys. I’m not saying WM6.5 is perfect (in fact, I’m not saying a thing about it in this post - that’s coming later), but how about a little bitartisan reviewing?
• The tech-geeks have moved to Android. As I said recently, the Linux-based Android handsets appeal more to the geeks. While Windows Mobile has always been great for techies due to highly customizable and hackable Windows CE core, Android has linux. Game over.
• Windows Mobile users often don’t know they’re using Windows Mobile. The biggest problem with WinMo is that it’s just so poorly branded. Most (and yes I do mean “most”) people who own Windows Mobile Phones likely don’t know what version they’re using, couldn’t tell you if it’s 5.0, 6.0, 6.1 or 6.5 - let alone if it’s even running Windows Mobile! But it’s not their fault, no one ever told them.
• Microsoft doesn’t really market Windows Mobile. Ever seen an iPhone ad? Wait, here’s a better question: ever not seen an iPhone ad?! Enough said.

So as today comes and goes, with little hype and a lot of disappointment, I think Microsoft should take a good hard look at the results of the launch and reevaluate how they address the next version of Windows Mobile.

Better yet, Microsoft should take lesson from their own playbook: spend money marketing a product, it can work. Hell, with only $80m spent on Bing, you can take a sizable chunk from Google. Google! I just hope they take a fraction of that and put it towards mobile platforms to go up against the other players quickly creeping in on their marketshare. Hell, it’s worked for Apple just fine.

But hey, let’s not get too down on them today. Let’s celebrate Windows Mobile 6.5’s release - and then start the countdown all over again to Windows Mobile 7.

Update: oh. I found the marketing material

Android, the Google-developed/Linux-based mobile OS, debuted last fall as yet-another platform in the ever fragmenting war over smartphones. Going up against Apple, Windows Mobile, Blackberry, Symbian, and now Palm’s WebOS - Android was positioned last year as an “open source” operating system that could run on almost any hardware.

Unlike Apple, that has one OS and one device, or Windows Mobile, with multiple OSes for various devices, the promise behind Android was that it was a flexible, lightweight, and robust platform (seems like an contradictory adjective list, no?), that could run on barebones dumbphones as well as super-powered, touchscreen, smartphones. The surprise however, is that for the first 10 months of Android’s existence, it was only available on a single device: the TMobile G1 (warning, that link has annoying music playing in the background).

The G1 (or HTC-manufactured “Dream”) landed on TMobile late 2008 and introduced Android to the masses. Now this is tough for me to say, because I’m potentially one of the biggest HTC fans out there, but the G1 is actually a pretty flawed piece of hardware. I previously documented the problems with the hardware design (hint: it has to do with buttons), but beyond the lacking functionality, the G1 just doesn’t feel that great in the hand. It’s a bit clunky and big, but not very sturdy feeling. Its sliding screen feels a little cheap and the keyboard is just junky.

So what does this mean for Android? The answer should be: “Nothing”. But as this was the only piece of hardware out for Android’s first ten months, it means that Android became associated with the G1 - and not in a totally great way.

Now I’m not saying that Android has a bad image - most gadgeteers are quite fond of Android - but what I’ve seen for the better part of this year, is constant speculation on Android’s future. The common statement I’ve heard is that “it’ll be great to see what happens when Android makes it onto more devices”. And I agree. Android has loads of potential, but we won’t really know how it will pan out until more phones run Android.

Fortunately, that time is fast approaching.

Last month TMobile released a second Android handset, the MyTouch 3G (also manufactured by HTC, named Magic) - a device similar to the G1, but lacking a keyboard (argh! I’m not getting into this today). And now, a few weeks later, the floodgates have opened. Before the year’s end, there will likely be a dozen available Android handsets. That’s a big increase from ONE.

So what does this mean? Here’s my take:

This is good for Android because:

• More devices means more consumer adoption. Not everyone wanted a G1, but now there are choices. Really, something for everyone.
• More carriers means more consumer adoption. Not everyone wants TMobile. With Sprint selling the Hero this fall and Verizon and AT&T playing up rumors of new devices, there will be an Android device available to all big US carriers.
• More consumer adoption means more developer adoption. The more Android devices out there, the more desirable it will be for developers to build great apps - making the phones that much better for consumers. It’s cyclically awesome.
• Android is no longer just for geeks. Yes, I said it. I work in Kendall Square in Cambridge, arguably one of the geekiest places in the world - I see more G1s here than anywhere else. Correlation may not be causation - but I’m just saying - the G1 is geeky. New Android handsets are slick and more appealing to the mass market.

But also bad for Android because:

• Fragmenting the platform makes development difficult. Developers constantly complain that Windows Mobile is tough to develop for, because there are many different screen sizes, processors, hardware specs, etc. With each change, developers have to build/tweak to get their apps to work correctly.
• More devices means more confusion. If you have an iPhone, you know it’s an Apple iPhone. There’s no mistaking that. But the more varied devices that run Android, the less consistent the brand recognition. The less brand recognition, the less brand loyalty. Ultimately, more devices dilutes Android.
• Android isn’t geeky anymore. It’s the “Google Phone” or “Linux Phone” - over the last year, I’ve always loved talking to G1 owners who have built their own apps, customized their interface, or hacked it to play Doom - but as Android makes its way to the masses, it looses its geek-cred.

Well in the end that’s 4-3 in favor of this being a great thing for Android and I’m excited about that. I think it’s a great platform and at very least is driving the smartphone market to become ever stronger. Is Android ready to take down Apple? No. But is it going to be fun to watch the platform expand? Absolutely.

We’ve all seen the commercials: white background, hipster jingle, soothing voice, and a hand swiping through an iPhone application explaining how whatever your wildest dreams might be, there’s an app for that. As Apple claims: there are “Apps for Everything“.

Before I get to the rant section of today’s post, I should preface with the fact that I think the App concept is fantastic and has revolutionized the mobile industry in a great way. iPhone app development is cheap, quick, and relatively easy, drawing out hoards of developers making it a strong marketplace where there truly is an app for just about everything.

The app-ification of the mobile industry is even better. Following Apple’s Shaq-sized footsteps, Blackberry has App World, Windows Mobile has a Marketplace, Palm has its App Catalog, Android has App Market, Nokia has Ovi, and Motorola has App Warehouse (ok, that last one was fake, but if Motorola had a platform, its apps likely would be sold from a warehouse). Although I’m vehemently against the fragmentation of development platforms (expect a blog post on this sometime soon) I’m still glad to see mobile platforms deservedly gain developers’ interest because it means more fun and function for consumers.

Now of course, not all the apps are that great, or useful, or appropriate… (you all know that iFart and 30+ noise emulating clones exist, I’m not even going to link to it because they don’t deserve it), but amazingly, that’s not what I’m going to rant on today. Instead, I’m going to rant about feature apps - applications that enhance the phone’s functionality.

Here’s the back story: earlier this week my friend Matt took me to a Red Sox game (thanks Matty!) and we had pretty awesome seats (seriously, thanks!), right down at about field level. In between innings we decided to take a few pictures. Matt pulled out his trusty iPhone (the most popular camera in the world) but wanted to take a picture of a player deeper in outfield. The iPhone’s camera is pretty good, but it has no zooming ability. But not to fear, Matt showed me that “there’s an app for that!” and loaded up a third party application that zooms in the camera, “and for only a buck - well worth it”. Although I agree with him, that only a dollar seems fair for an application that adds such a great feature to the phone, I’m less enthusiastic about it being a third party app.

My question: why doesn’t Apple include these much-needed features into the standard build of the operating system instead of selling them?

As indicated by third party developers, the phone is fully capable of these features, but for some reason or another, aren’t included in the standard build. Is it because Apple makes more money for every time it sells an app? Man, I hope not. If there were security or stabilization issues, then why would Apple release an app to the public at all? If it’s a copyright problem, that third party developers came up with an idea and won’t sell to Apple, well that shouldn’t be a problem for them either (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, go watch Pirates of Silicon Valley. You can borrow my copy if you want…).

Oh, wait… (and here comes the punch line) taking good third party ideas and building them in is exactly what Apple is doing. In the annual iPhone upgrade, Apple is indeed baking some of the most popular apps to give users the features that should have been there all along. Here’s a good list of “15 Apps Rendered Obsolete by the iPhone 3GS“. #10 on the list: Camera Zoom.

Ultimately Apple’s seems to be slow on improving its operating system because independent developers are doing the work instead, a detriment, and cost, to consumers.

So the next time you wonder if “there’s an app for that” - instead maybe you should wonder why it’s not already standard.

A year ago I posted my Wild and Crazy Tech Predictions for 2008 and seeing as how 2008 is winding down here, I thought it would be fun to revisit the predictions to see how well/poorly I did.

So below is a copy of last year’s predictions - with updates on my accuracy in RED. Enjoy! (And sorry to anyone color blind out there… I predict that this post will be worthless for you…)

Here we go:

Social Networks

• Facebook will continue to grow, reaching over 80 Million registered users
  FB is now at 140 million+… I underestimated by about 60 million. We’ll call this a miss, but I was on the right track about the massive growth part…
• At some point in 2008 there will be a revolt of users on Facebook (due to another invasive advertising scandal) resulting in a large dropoff of traffic. It will return to normal in under two weeks.
  I was way off on the “large dropoff” part as well as the “invasive advertising” - but this summer’s redesign pissed off a lot of users. But of course those upset went onto Facebook to complain…
• More small, specifically focused, social networks will pop-up in the first half of the year. By the years’ end they will start going to way of friendster and the big networks will gobble them up.
  Google’s Ning (small social network creator) was huge this year. And although many haven’t been gobbled up, the cream has certainly remained at the top.
• Google’s Open Social will help all of this happen as it will make it simpler to build small specialty social networks interoperable, but it will also make it simple for the big networks to adapt their features and user bases.
  Hit! Read here.
• MySpace will continue to look more and more like Facebook with each redesign; Facebook will stubbornly not change their look, resulting in third-party applications for customizing the look (think of Skins or Themes) of your Facebook portal.
  Myspace’s recent redesign is strikingly similar to Facebook. And Facebook changed its layout, but not its look. I still think this one is on the way.
• Social Networking will take its first real steps into the mobile world through applications, not miniature browser portals. Beyond the simple apps or mobile sites out now, MySpace, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc, will all have their on client-server apps for Windows Mobile, Android, Symbian, and other dumbphones.
  This was a definite hit. With the iPhone app store there are now MySpace and Facebook apps for iPhones - and similar applications for Android, Symbian, and Windows Mobile. And I was certainly correct that this would be a real step: one million status updates in a day…

Blogs

• Sifry (Technorati) will report the existence of over 100 million blogs and a new quarter million created daily.
  133 million total - and blah blah blah new ones per day. Reason for the “blah” - see next prediction.
• Bloggers will no longer put up with Technorati’s inconsistent service- a clone will steal the market by offering similar service with better functionality.
  Yup. And there are now many better offerings… let’s just go with Guy Kawasaki’s AllTop for starters.
• More celebs, athletes, and high-profile figures will start blogging as themselves.
  Definite hit. Twitter has helped this too - but check out this post for examples.
• Due to Gawker Media’s (Gizmodo, Valleywag, Wonkette, Consumerist, Kotaku, etc) new commission system for its bloggers, posting will decrease to a readable amount. This will also make Gawker and Valleywag writers stoop to paparazzi-like tactics to get new stories. It won’t be good.
  To avoid any further discussion on this one- let’s just say “yes” I’m totally correct.
• I’ll keep up the posts for a while, until I get too busy and frustrated that I don’t have time. Then I’ll write a big come-back post apologizing and be extra witty for two straight weeks. This process will repeat a month later.
  I was wrong here. I mean: yes- I stopped posting frequently. But no- I never apologized, nor did I get “extra witty”
• When GTA IV comes out I will not post for an entire week.
  This was less of a prediction and more of a warning.

Mobile Phones

• Apple will release the second gen iPhone. It will come in 8 and 16gb varieties, both sporting 3g HSDPA (high speed download packet access) but not HSUPA (same thing but with Upload).
  100% correct. iPhone 3G.
• Apple will institute stricter measures to ensure the new iPhone can’t be jailbroken or unlocked. Less than 5 days after release the iPhone will be jailbroken and unlocked.
  Close. It took eight days.
• Android phones will run on ATT, TMobile and VZW. They will be disappointing at first, but by the end of 2008 will be solid competitors in the market.
  I’m especially sad to be wrong about this one. TMobile got exclusive rights - which pushed off any competitors (and arguably killed the initial development frenzy that could have made it more powerful)
• HTC’s first “gPhone” will be called ugly by the mass media, mainly because they have no idea what a pda-phone is supposed to look like.
  Here’s some food for your mind-grapes: “Ugly“
• Google’s Android competition will be won by a pretty simple application that already exists for Windows Mobile. People will ignore this fact and be wowed by its functionality.
  I couldn’t be more happy to be so wrong. The Android competition produced some awesomely innovative apps. Check them out here.
• Windows Mobile 7 will be leaked and sadly it will be a disappointment. The interface will be drastically improved, but the functionality will remain sluggish.
  Now here’s one that I’m quite suprised about. Windows 7 was not only NOT leaked, but it was pushed back a FULL YEAR at the minimum. But, to keep my prediction streak alive, I was pretty close when applied to the previously unmentioned Windows Mobile 6.5
• HTC will release a 5mp Camera phone. Nokia will release an 11mp camera phone.
  HTC’s first 5mp Camera Phone was released this fall: the TouchHD. But it wasn’t Nokia with the crazy camera phone - that goes to Samsung with its upcoming 12mp Marvel.
• A large amount of standard phones released in 2008 will have touch screen capabilities. Others will have qwerty pads.
  This prediction is so accurate that it almost sounds dumb today. But a year ago - pretty much only PDA phones had touch screens and/or keyboards.
• Bluetooth stereo headsets will gain style points - and bluetooth phone headsets will finally stop sounding so crappy.
  How the hell is this one not right? Why do bluetooth headseats still suck? I can’t believe it, but I’m wrong here.
• Sprint’s WiMax will still suck and fail to roll-out.
  Hahahahahahahaha. I’m sorry, but seriously guys. Come on!
• Here’s a biggie: Google will win the 700mhz Auction for over $8 Billion (I’ll write a lot more on this later)
  Ugh. I was wrong. There - I said it. Verizon won the auction - and got the C block for a mere $4.5 billion. Chump change. Hopefully some good comes of this…

Web TV

• The continuing spread of Fiber Optics will help IPTV exist through set top boxes thanks to ATT and Verizon (now roll-out in Boston!)
  Notice how I didn’t predict Verizon FiOS to roll-out in Boston, but angrily stated it? That’s because it still hasn’t happened. But the rest did.
• The networks will continue to adapt their online offerings (see: Hulu), learning that iTunes is a horrible deal for everyone (but apple).
  Who even needs cable anymore?
• YouTube spin-offs will keep popping up- the successful ones will be acquired, the unsuccessful ones will fail miserably.
  This is the one prediction that I don’t really understand anymore. I think I meant Hulu like sites… but it seems like everything in online video is doing well these days.
• User Generated Content will always be funny and a huge part of online video, but as hosting sites adapt HD standards there will be a larger market for “Straight to Download”, professionally generated content. People will have trouble adopting this in 2008, mistakenly relating it to “Straight to Video”.
  The “Straight to Download” concept floated around a bit - and we’re now starting to see shows debut online - which is both awesome and pretty close to my prediction.
• Online video will start dropping the in-program commercials in favor of over-lay advertising. Some sites will do this well and will be popular. Some sites will integrate far too invasive overlays and upset viewers.
  Yep. YouTube rolled this out - and has done it quite well (at least compared to pre-rolls. Please, let me never encounter a pre-roll again…)
• XBOX 360 will finally gain full IPTV features.
  Sadly wrong. But the kickass Netflix integration paved the way for future streaming apps.
• Viral marketing will become even stranger and more random, resulting in a completetly misconstrued add which crosses line in the Controversial/Funny bell-curve and gives the company more negative publicity than anything else.
  This probably happened- but I’m afraid to search for examples.

General Tech

• Apple will release an “ultra portable” laptop - it will weigh around 2lbs and have a 9-10″ screen.
  Close… The MacBook Air is 3lbs and has a 13″ screen.
• Asus will release a follow up to the Eee PC, at 9″ and 2.5lbs. The two computers will be put head-to-head by every one of the big tech blogs.
  100% right about the eee PC 901 - but unfortunately I can’t find a picture of the MBA and the eee next to each other… so we’ll scratch this one.
• HDDVD vs BlueRay will not be resolved. The 150 early adopters of each will be pissed. The general public will be happy during holiday season 2008 when prices on each drops below $150.
  HA! I actually remember when this post was published in February thinking to myself “crap… this one is going to look really dumb in my 2008 predictions post…”. But at least I was right about the price drop for the holiday season… no- still sucks to be so wrong.
• LCD TV prices will continue to fall as the first OLED and SED TVs hit the consumer market (at astronomical prices).
  OLED TVs hit the US this year and at outrageous prices - and LCD prices indeed continued to fall.
• The PS3 will drop in price again, reaching $350. Then it will be release in a variety of colors.
  Only two colors - and still $400. Also - still overpriced.
• The Nintendo Wii shortage will get better, but it still won’t be easy to find one.
  True.
• A new Wii will be released by December 2008 and it will come in multiple colors, will have a built in DVD drive and multimedia capabilities… but you won’t be able to get one anywhere.
  False! Damnit. Why not!?
• 2008 will be a slow year for the iPod, but each current version will be re-released in a new array of colors.
  Pretty close. Many called the iPod nano an incremental upgrade… but it comes in lots of fun colors!
• GMail will up each user’s server space to 10GB and will provide an option to upload files for them to host. The service will be free.
  It’s only up to 7+GB - and while this service exists and is free, Google hasn’t yet rolled out its version.
• Digg will be bought by a big corporation - and its users will flee requiring the big company to reinvent a user-supported community. This will fail.
  This prediction will fail. Digg thrwarts potential buyers.
• More tech Venture Capitalists will follow the FunnyorDie.com model and invest in Hollywood. This will also fail.
  This happened, briefly, but no one really seemed to care.
• Quad core computers will be more widely available and affordable. People will still find Vista to be bulky and slow.
  I’m sick of Vista bashing. I’m leaving this one untouched.
• XP will still be an option for new laptops at the end of 2008.
  XP will still be an option for new laptops until May 30th, 2009
• Linux will continue to gain market share (maybe as large as 3%) through sales of notebooks and desktops at Walmart and Target.
  Big win here. Completely accurate.

And that’s it!

I think I could have been a little more aggressive on some of the predictions - but overall I’m pretty proud at how I did here (aside from the HD-DVD pick… ugh. I’ll never let myself live this one down). In the end it looks like I’m batting a little above 600 - not amazing, but fun nevertheless.

As for 2009 predictions? Well, I’m working on that one. But actually getting paid for it this time… so unfortunately that means they won’t show up here any time soon.

But I’ll give you a little hint at a big prediction to tide you over: Betamax and HDDVD merge to create a Voltron-like format that takes over the world… get ready for it.

WARNING: this is one of the nerdier gadget posts. If you’re afraid of random letter acronyms, it might be best to stop reading now.  But if you’re still with me, enjoy!

It goes without saying that the iPhone has had its fair share of hype this summer.  But I’ll say it anyway: Apple dominated mobile phone news this year and you know what?  That bugs me.  So let me quickly get a few things out of the way before diving into this.  Yes - the iPhone is cool and game changing.  And yes - I wrote about it three more times than I should have this summer.  Good.  Let’s move on.

What bothers me about all this is that with all the hubbub around the iPhone there’s been one big story that has been severely overlooked: HTC’s killer year of developments.

For those unfamiliar, HTC (High Tech Computer Corporation (the coolest brand name ever!)) is a Taiwanese ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) and an OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer).  Got it?  Ok, let’s say that another way: HTC is a company that makes phones that are sometimes branded as “HTC” and sometimes branded as something else.  It would be like if Nike took the swooshes off of some of its shoes so that Adidas could buy them to slap a few stripes on there.  Weird, right?

Well anyway, for a long time HTC was only an ODM, sending its unbranded phones to companies like Compaq, iMate, Audiovox, and even carrier branded phones from TMobile, and AT&T.  But recently, HTC started selling phones with its own logo on them, and has actually been quite successful so far.

This year HTC successfully launched a self branded campaign for its Touch Diamond, a hopeful competitor to the iPhone consumer.  Surprisingly, the Diamond has already sold a million units since launch, and it’s not even available in the states yet (but will be out on Sprint networks by the month’s end).

Later this year HTC will continue its self branded success with the highly anticipated (by me) launch of the Touch Pro (already out in Europe) a more powerful device with a full keyboard (QWERTY, plus a row of numbers… a previously unimagined concept).   Plus, almost out of nowhere, HTC announced last week the launch of the S740 (needs a better code name…) a device that should appeal to just about any Windows Mobile enthusiast.

With the iPhone aside (and yes, that’s a large “aside”), HTC only has a few competitors in the Smart/PDA-Phone market this year.  Mainly, the new Palm Treo Pro (which received the best reviews of any Palm phone in years), TMobile’s largely hyped Android-powered Dream (the Google Phone), or Sony’s uber-phone, the XPERIA (which may or may not be delayed until 2009).

But wait… HTC’s biggest competitors (again, aside from the iPhone) all have something strange in common…

As the story goes, HTC is in fact the ODM for the Palm Treo Pro, the TMobile Dream, AND the Sony XPERIA!

HTC’s biggest competition is itselft (aside from the iPhone…).  HTC as an OEM is competing with HTC the ODM.  Strange, but true, and either way HTC wins.

So even though the times might be changing, it’s good to see someone stand up to the iPhone.  Now all HTC needs is some Steve Jobs like marketing… then who knows what could happen.

So I’m a gadget nerd and somehow I have yet to address the 3G iPhone.  Heard of it?  No?  Well then you probably shouldn’t be reading this blog.

But if you have heard the news on Apple’s upcoming super-phone, then you likely heard that it’s going to be available at 8am on July 11th (next Friday, for those that want to go stand in line now).

The early July release comes as very little surprise to just about anyone (including me, from seven months ago).  I mean hell, as soon as the first iPhone was released it was pretty much assumed that there would be a follow up a year later.  We all knew this!

So where are the competitors?  Apple has already stolen a huge chunk of the smartphone market in the last year, why would the competition just let this launch come up without a fight!?  Where’s the Android Dream Phone (Q1 2009)?  Where’s Blackberry’s Bold (September for ATT)?  The Palm 800w (expected Q4 2008)?  Where’s HTC’s Touch/Touch Pro (Q4 2008)?!  None of these guys could get their act together to release a product in time to lure anyone away from the iPhone?  I don’t get it.

Samsung took a valid stab with its Instinct, especially by dropping the price to a ridiculous $129.  And that’s it.  Seriously.  That’s it.  I don’t get it.

What’s even more difficult to understand is how the competition would even let users think about the iPhone because iPhone converts are going to remain loyal to the iPhone.  It’s a device that will suck you in to its usability - the way Apple products do.  You just get used to the way the function and you don’t want to go back.  Other hardware manufacturers aren’t just going to lose users for one generation of a phone; they will be lost to the iPhone for years to come.

Personally, I’m about as die-hard a Windows Mobile fan as you can find.  And you want to hear a sadly honest admission: the 3G iPhone is enticing.  A year ago I laughed at the iPhone for its wimpy EDGE connectivity and its lack of MS Office interoperability, but it’s a year later and those mistakes have been fixed.  And I have no new options for WinMo.

Is the new iPhone that much cooler?  No.  But by dropping the price to $200 and being the only cool new phone on the market this summer, it will win.  The damn thing can’t even copy and paste (yep, that is correct), but it will still be the best offering on the market.

Subtitled: “good luck with that”

I’ve addressed Mobile Phone Operating Systems before, concluding that it’s a rapidly developing (and awesome) market with the iPhone, Windows Mobile, and Google’s Android. Well during the Boston Gadgetry Meetup last month the group pretty much only talked about how the Palm OS is barely even mentioned anymore.

Well it turns out that there’s an OS sibling neglected even worse than Palm: Symbian. You know Symbian? That functionally ugly operating system that mainly resides on Nokia phones? Well, in all fairness if you haven’t used a Nokia then you likely didn’t know Symbian even existed. And even if you owned a Nokia, you might not have known you were using the Symbian OS.

As the story goes, yesterday Nokia (the hardware manufacturers behind such such horrible products as the Ngage, the E90 Communicator, and the 7380 Fashion Phone, as well as such beauties as the N95 and … well, that’s it) bought the Symbian Operating System. The goal behind all this (as the Engadget post will tell you) is to open source the OS to make it competitive with the rest of the market.

What does this mean? “Open Source the OS” refers to opening up the code so that software developers can build things for it. Exactly the way Google’s Android is set up. And the way (sort of) that Apple’s iPhone OS is (marketing itself as…). By opening up, it invites developers to actually make it better. This has been a hugely important push for Android in competing with Apple, while Apple pushes to compete with WinMo and Blackberry’s OS.

What do I think of this? First, I think it’s good. All operating systems should be open for development because ultimately it will make better products for the end user. BUT I’ve argued before that the mobile development community is already far too segmented. There are too many options for good developers out there that to build an application to reach the masses, you’d need to recreate it for each OS… or more likely- it will really only be built for one and the public will miss out on it.

What would I like to see happen? Nokia to drop Symbian and make Windows Mobile phones! As ugly as hell as some of Nokia’s phones are, these guys aren’t afraid to push the envelope to make crafty devices. The Nokia N95 is, and as a loyal HTC fan I hate to say this, the BEST hardware in the American market. It has a 5mp camera, impressive 3G chip, and a solid chunk of memory. But it runs by far and away the WORST operating system.

Well anyway, this is what I’ll discuss tonight at the Gadgetry MeetUp tonight at the Hill Tavern in Beacon Hill. If you want to attend, RSVP on the page there, or shoot me an email. I’d love to hear an argument about how the hell anyone expects Symbian to compete- open or not.

UPDATE: TechCrunch just copied my post… but with much better detail and factual coverage read it here

Tonight I’ll be attending the Boston Gadgetry MeetUp, a group organized (by me) to bring together people who like to talk about fun tech-toys.

The general topic of the evening will be “Mobile Operating Systems”, to discuss the brewing battle between Windows Mobile, the iPhone OS, Blackberry, and the prepubescent Android.

For a little background reading on this subject, check out the following links:

• HTC’s Diamond featuring Windows Mobile 6.1: YouTube Video
• Blackberry’s newly announced “Bold” with new OS 4.6: Gizmodo Images
• A video walkthrough of the Android platform: YouTube Video
• And a few leaked details on the new 3G iPhone: CrunchGear

And here are a few notes that I’m excited to discuss this evening.

• That Palm OS isn’t even in the mixer anymore
• How the Diamond’s modded WM 6.1 is WM 6.0 with the addition of a number of features to make it more like the iPhone
• The fact that Blackberry can actually make hardware appealing enough to compensate for no touchscreen
• And conversely, how the iPhone can make an OS appealing enough to compensate for no hardware
• How each OS is targeted towards a different user group, but the hardware doesn’t necessarily match this
• How easily Android will be able to break into the market because of its minimal operating requirements
• The future of the mobile OS - combining a UI of the iPhone with functionality of Windows Mobile… and how this will most likely be seen in Android 2 before either WM or an iPhone…

So if any of these things interest you then stop by the Kinsale at Government Center this evening after work. And make sure to check out the Gadgetry MeetUp page for more details.

Hope to see you there!