Ampers & Dot

A year ago I posted my Wild and Crazy Tech Predictions for 2008 and seeing as how 2008 is winding down here, I thought it would be fun to revisit the predictions to see how well/poorly I did.

So below is a copy of last year’s predictions - with updates on my accuracy in RED. Enjoy! (And sorry to anyone color blind out there… I predict that this post will be worthless for you…)

Here we go:

Social Networks

• Facebook will continue to grow, reaching over 80 Million registered users
  FB is now at 140 million+… I underestimated by about 60 million. We’ll call this a miss, but I was on the right track about the massive growth part…
• At some point in 2008 there will be a revolt of users on Facebook (due to another invasive advertising scandal) resulting in a large dropoff of traffic. It will return to normal in under two weeks.
  I was way off on the “large dropoff” part as well as the “invasive advertising” - but this summer’s redesign pissed off a lot of users. But of course those upset went onto Facebook to complain…
• More small, specifically focused, social networks will pop-up in the first half of the year. By the years’ end they will start going to way of friendster and the big networks will gobble them up.
  Google’s Ning (small social network creator) was huge this year. And although many haven’t been gobbled up, the cream has certainly remained at the top.
• Google’s Open Social will help all of this happen as it will make it simpler to build small specialty social networks interoperable, but it will also make it simple for the big networks to adapt their features and user bases.
  Hit! Read here.
• MySpace will continue to look more and more like Facebook with each redesign; Facebook will stubbornly not change their look, resulting in third-party applications for customizing the look (think of Skins or Themes) of your Facebook portal.
  Myspace’s recent redesign is strikingly similar to Facebook. And Facebook changed its layout, but not its look. I still think this one is on the way.
• Social Networking will take its first real steps into the mobile world through applications, not miniature browser portals. Beyond the simple apps or mobile sites out now, MySpace, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc, will all have their on client-server apps for Windows Mobile, Android, Symbian, and other dumbphones.
  This was a definite hit. With the iPhone app store there are now MySpace and Facebook apps for iPhones - and similar applications for Android, Symbian, and Windows Mobile. And I was certainly correct that this would be a real step: one million status updates in a day…

Blogs

• Sifry (Technorati) will report the existence of over 100 million blogs and a new quarter million created daily.
  133 million total - and blah blah blah new ones per day. Reason for the “blah” - see next prediction.
• Bloggers will no longer put up with Technorati’s inconsistent service- a clone will steal the market by offering similar service with better functionality.
  Yup. And there are now many better offerings… let’s just go with Guy Kawasaki’s AllTop for starters.
• More celebs, athletes, and high-profile figures will start blogging as themselves.
  Definite hit. Twitter has helped this too - but check out this post for examples.
• Due to Gawker Media’s (Gizmodo, Valleywag, Wonkette, Consumerist, Kotaku, etc) new commission system for its bloggers, posting will decrease to a readable amount. This will also make Gawker and Valleywag writers stoop to paparazzi-like tactics to get new stories. It won’t be good.
  To avoid any further discussion on this one- let’s just say “yes” I’m totally correct.
• I’ll keep up the posts for a while, until I get too busy and frustrated that I don’t have time. Then I’ll write a big come-back post apologizing and be extra witty for two straight weeks. This process will repeat a month later.
  I was wrong here. I mean: yes- I stopped posting frequently. But no- I never apologized, nor did I get “extra witty”
• When GTA IV comes out I will not post for an entire week.
  This was less of a prediction and more of a warning.

Mobile Phones

• Apple will release the second gen iPhone. It will come in 8 and 16gb varieties, both sporting 3g HSDPA (high speed download packet access) but not HSUPA (same thing but with Upload).
  100% correct. iPhone 3G.
• Apple will institute stricter measures to ensure the new iPhone can’t be jailbroken or unlocked. Less than 5 days after release the iPhone will be jailbroken and unlocked.
  Close. It took eight days.
• Android phones will run on ATT, TMobile and VZW. They will be disappointing at first, but by the end of 2008 will be solid competitors in the market.
  I’m especially sad to be wrong about this one. TMobile got exclusive rights - which pushed off any competitors (and arguably killed the initial development frenzy that could have made it more powerful)
• HTC’s first “gPhone” will be called ugly by the mass media, mainly because they have no idea what a pda-phone is supposed to look like.
  Here’s some food for your mind-grapes: “Ugly“
• Google’s Android competition will be won by a pretty simple application that already exists for Windows Mobile. People will ignore this fact and be wowed by its functionality.
  I couldn’t be more happy to be so wrong. The Android competition produced some awesomely innovative apps. Check them out here.
• Windows Mobile 7 will be leaked and sadly it will be a disappointment. The interface will be drastically improved, but the functionality will remain sluggish.
  Now here’s one that I’m quite suprised about. Windows 7 was not only NOT leaked, but it was pushed back a FULL YEAR at the minimum. But, to keep my prediction streak alive, I was pretty close when applied to the previously unmentioned Windows Mobile 6.5
• HTC will release a 5mp Camera phone. Nokia will release an 11mp camera phone.
  HTC’s first 5mp Camera Phone was released this fall: the TouchHD. But it wasn’t Nokia with the crazy camera phone - that goes to Samsung with its upcoming 12mp Marvel.
• A large amount of standard phones released in 2008 will have touch screen capabilities. Others will have qwerty pads.
  This prediction is so accurate that it almost sounds dumb today. But a year ago - pretty much only PDA phones had touch screens and/or keyboards.
• Bluetooth stereo headsets will gain style points - and bluetooth phone headsets will finally stop sounding so crappy.
  How the hell is this one not right? Why do bluetooth headseats still suck? I can’t believe it, but I’m wrong here.
• Sprint’s WiMax will still suck and fail to roll-out.
  Hahahahahahahaha. I’m sorry, but seriously guys. Come on!
• Here’s a biggie: Google will win the 700mhz Auction for over $8 Billion (I’ll write a lot more on this later)
  Ugh. I was wrong. There - I said it. Verizon won the auction - and got the C block for a mere $4.5 billion. Chump change. Hopefully some good comes of this…

Web TV

• The continuing spread of Fiber Optics will help IPTV exist through set top boxes thanks to ATT and Verizon (now roll-out in Boston!)
  Notice how I didn’t predict Verizon FiOS to roll-out in Boston, but angrily stated it? That’s because it still hasn’t happened. But the rest did.
• The networks will continue to adapt their online offerings (see: Hulu), learning that iTunes is a horrible deal for everyone (but apple).
  Who even needs cable anymore?
• YouTube spin-offs will keep popping up- the successful ones will be acquired, the unsuccessful ones will fail miserably.
  This is the one prediction that I don’t really understand anymore. I think I meant Hulu like sites… but it seems like everything in online video is doing well these days.
• User Generated Content will always be funny and a huge part of online video, but as hosting sites adapt HD standards there will be a larger market for “Straight to Download”, professionally generated content. People will have trouble adopting this in 2008, mistakenly relating it to “Straight to Video”.
  The “Straight to Download” concept floated around a bit - and we’re now starting to see shows debut online - which is both awesome and pretty close to my prediction.
• Online video will start dropping the in-program commercials in favor of over-lay advertising. Some sites will do this well and will be popular. Some sites will integrate far too invasive overlays and upset viewers.
  Yep. YouTube rolled this out - and has done it quite well (at least compared to pre-rolls. Please, let me never encounter a pre-roll again…)
• XBOX 360 will finally gain full IPTV features.
  Sadly wrong. But the kickass Netflix integration paved the way for future streaming apps.
• Viral marketing will become even stranger and more random, resulting in a completetly misconstrued add which crosses line in the Controversial/Funny bell-curve and gives the company more negative publicity than anything else.
  This probably happened- but I’m afraid to search for examples.

General Tech

• Apple will release an “ultra portable” laptop - it will weigh around 2lbs and have a 9-10″ screen.
  Close… The MacBook Air is 3lbs and has a 13″ screen.
• Asus will release a follow up to the Eee PC, at 9″ and 2.5lbs. The two computers will be put head-to-head by every one of the big tech blogs.
  100% right about the eee PC 901 - but unfortunately I can’t find a picture of the MBA and the eee next to each other… so we’ll scratch this one.
• HDDVD vs BlueRay will not be resolved. The 150 early adopters of each will be pissed. The general public will be happy during holiday season 2008 when prices on each drops below $150.
  HA! I actually remember when this post was published in February thinking to myself “crap… this one is going to look really dumb in my 2008 predictions post…”. But at least I was right about the price drop for the holiday season… no- still sucks to be so wrong.
• LCD TV prices will continue to fall as the first OLED and SED TVs hit the consumer market (at astronomical prices).
  OLED TVs hit the US this year and at outrageous prices - and LCD prices indeed continued to fall.
• The PS3 will drop in price again, reaching $350. Then it will be release in a variety of colors.
  Only two colors - and still $400. Also - still overpriced.
• The Nintendo Wii shortage will get better, but it still won’t be easy to find one.
  True.
• A new Wii will be released by December 2008 and it will come in multiple colors, will have a built in DVD drive and multimedia capabilities… but you won’t be able to get one anywhere.
  False! Damnit. Why not!?
• 2008 will be a slow year for the iPod, but each current version will be re-released in a new array of colors.
  Pretty close. Many called the iPod nano an incremental upgrade… but it comes in lots of fun colors!
• GMail will up each user’s server space to 10GB and will provide an option to upload files for them to host. The service will be free.
  It’s only up to 7+GB - and while this service exists and is free, Google hasn’t yet rolled out its version.
• Digg will be bought by a big corporation - and its users will flee requiring the big company to reinvent a user-supported community. This will fail.
  This prediction will fail. Digg thrwarts potential buyers.
• More tech Venture Capitalists will follow the FunnyorDie.com model and invest in Hollywood. This will also fail.
  This happened, briefly, but no one really seemed to care.
• Quad core computers will be more widely available and affordable. People will still find Vista to be bulky and slow.
  I’m sick of Vista bashing. I’m leaving this one untouched.
• XP will still be an option for new laptops at the end of 2008.
  XP will still be an option for new laptops until May 30th, 2009
• Linux will continue to gain market share (maybe as large as 3%) through sales of notebooks and desktops at Walmart and Target.
  Big win here. Completely accurate.

And that’s it!

I think I could have been a little more aggressive on some of the predictions - but overall I’m pretty proud at how I did here (aside from the HD-DVD pick… ugh. I’ll never let myself live this one down). In the end it looks like I’m batting a little above 600 - not amazing, but fun nevertheless.

As for 2009 predictions? Well, I’m working on that one. But actually getting paid for it this time… so unfortunately that means they won’t show up here any time soon.

But I’ll give you a little hint at a big prediction to tide you over: Betamax and HDDVD merge to create a Voltron-like format that takes over the world… get ready for it.