Ok, thanks for sticking with me through an outdated post yesterday because, as you will soon see, it was necessary to set up today’s post. And today we’ve got a long one, be forewarned…
Well here we go. Today I want to counter yesterday’s argument, that Windows Mobile will suffer in the light of Google’s Android (open source development platform for cell phones), because a) the hardware manufacturers will focus more efforts on Android capable phones, ignoring Windows Mobile, and b) the development community will be further segmented.
So here’s the thing: I’m still genuinely worried about the latter issue because adding yet another mobile platform really will force developers to chose. In light of Android’s $10M contest for the best mobile app built by March ‘08, as well as the hype surrounding Android, I’d be surprised if developers didn’t begin working on applications for the new platform. But what I’ll outline towards the end of this post, is the longterm influence this will have on the mobile market, and how this could actually be highly beneficial down the road.
In my previous post I expressed a real concern about the former issue; that the hardware manufacturers will lose focus on Windows Mobile devices, as building phones that can run Android applications will be more appealing. Well since that was originally written, a few new stories have come up that have me thinking about all the cool gadgetry of the future.
Read Engadget’s Interview with HTC CEO, Peter Chou
Since Google announced Android (and I wrote that post, nearly a month ago), the hype has settled a little bit and we’ve had time to reflect on what the implications of the open source platform really are. HTC has been the leader (90% or so marketshare) of Windows Mobile, and I previously feared they would be dropping their focus. Ironically, this interview focuses primarily on HTC’s role with Android and the Open Handset Alliance, but it actually puts me at ease for the future of WinMo gadgetry…
And here’s why: HTC doesn’t see Android as a competitor of Windows Mobile.
This quote, from the interview, shows how HTC’s CEO sees the emergence of Android into a company that was previously narrowly focused.
Ryan Block: I find it interesting that you mention that this is more of a consumer focused product because I think the one thing that Windows Mobile has really done well, especially in partnership with HTC, is define these extremely enterprise-centric and very effective mobile business tools. Do you feel that Android is not really entering that space? And that they are going to limit to two different worlds — you’ve got the enterprise and then the consumer?
Peter Chou: Android is probably not entering into the enterprise. At least initially, I have to say. But do not assume Microsoft is only enterprise. Maybe in the past the devices were techy, bigger, and with an unattractive form factor, and of course we put a lot of effort to try and mature the experience. But this year you’re seeing us ship devices like the Touch, which is much more consumer oriented, with a fine-tuned, simplified experience. So we believe that Windows mobile is there for consumer opportunity, and will continue working on that. But even still, there are different kinds of consumers, so we believe that Windows Mobile will continue to have opportunities.
Time for a major digression- the different types of cell phones. Most people (and cell providers, for some reason) mistakenly look at the cell phone world as a dichotomy: Cell Phones and Smartphones. Well I’ve always argued that there are three categories (seen below) but now, there’s an emerging fourth.
Cell Phone: Makes calls, probably has an internal calendar (which you haven’t used), minimal web browsing capability through WAP, probably has a junky camera. “Multimedia Phones” also fall under this category- phones that play music, videos, and store pictures, but still just have the standard phone function.
SmartPhone: A phone with PDA features. Integrates your email, calendar, office details, usually synchronized on a schedule or through “Push” capabilities. The best example here is a Blackberry.
PDA Phone: Smartphone features, added touch screen, and full desktop integration. Does everything a laptop can do, just smaller (and likely slower). Basically a Personal Digital Assistant, with a phone built in.
Until this summer, that was all I needed to categorize phones… but with the release of the iPhone (heard of it?), a new category emerged. Advanced SmartPhones: This category falls between SmartPhones and PDA phones, as they have more features than a smartphone (and often touch screen ability), but not full PDA features, such as Outlook or Exchange support. They likely get email through POP3 (gmail, hotmail, etc) but not your work email. Under this header, fall the iPhone, Nokia’s N95, and even LG’s Voyager
So where’s this all going?
Let’s step back to Peter Chou’s quote: “Android is probably not entering into the enterprise… there are different kinds of consumers, so we believe that Windows Mobile will continue to have opportunities.” This is what I seemed to have missed before- Android is in competition with the iPhone, not the Kaiser!
As the new category of Advanced Smartphones develops, Android will be pushing the envelope for Apple to start building a cooler 2nd Gen iPhone (likely released in June 2008, for anyone holding out on a new toy). What this means for Windows Mobile is that they will have a full realm of possibilities for the enterprise user, but they’ll still take cues from what Advanced Smartphones do. The same way that HTC built the Windows Mobile Touch in response to the iPhone, or the or the S730 to counter the Voyager, HTC will continue to create cutting edge hardware that takes the Advanced Smartphone features a few steps further. Windows Mobile will remain the leader in enterprise class phones and simply gain the cool gadgetry form of the competition. And hopefully this will mean a release of the long anticipated Omni
To round out this already-to-long post: What this means for software.
For the short term- bad news bears. The development community will undoubtedly be swept up with Android and you know what- it’ll be fun to watch what they build. But here are three arguments as to why I’m not worried for the long term (and please note, this took me a month to come up with…)
- There will always been an overwhelming need for enterprise application development- Businesses will have to pay for it, but there will be developers out there making awesome products once the hype of Android settles a bit
- Real developers want more out of their devices. A hardcore coder probably has a few Windows Mobile devices around because they can do so much. Android has limited capabilities and this will drive some developers back to WinMo, to build bigger, more powerful applications.
- Android is open source and if someone builds something cool enough for Android, it will only be a matter of time before it’s ported (or rebuilt) for Windows Mobile.
So maybe it won’t be soon- but in the long run, WinMo will only benefit from the new platform war. And hey, I haven’t even mentioned the 700MHZ auction yet… (that’ll be a big post, likely before Christmas… but I’ll need some time to work on it).
Needless to say: these are great times for the mobile industry- starting in 2008 we are going to see some sweeping changes to the way we use phones, the way phones look, and the overall functionality of phones. So get ready- it’s going to be a fun ride.
