Why the 3G iPhone Will Win: Timing

So I’m a gadget nerd and somehow I have yet to address the 3G iPhone.  Heard of it?  No?  Well then you probably shouldn’t be reading this blog.

But if you have heard the news on Apple’s upcoming super-phone, then you likely heard that it’s going to be available at 8am on July 11th (next Friday, for those that want to go stand in line now).

The early July release comes as very little surprise to just about anyone (including me, from seven months ago).  I mean hell, as soon as the first iPhone was released it was pretty much assumed that there would be a follow up a year later.  We all knew this!

So where are the competitors?  Apple has already stolen a huge chunk of the smartphone market in the last year, why would the competition just let this launch come up without a fight!?  Where’s the Android Dream Phone (Q1 2009)?  Where’s Blackberry’s Bold (September for ATT)?  The Palm 800w (expected Q4 2008)?  Where’s HTC’s Touch/Touch Pro (Q4 2008)?!  None of these guys could get their act together to release a product in time to lure anyone away from the iPhone?  I don’t get it.

Samsung took a valid stab with its Instinct, especially by dropping the price to a ridiculous $129.  And that’s it.  Seriously.  That’s it.  I don’t get it.

What’s even more difficult to understand is how the competition would even let users think about the iPhone because iPhone converts are going to remain loyal to the iPhone.  It’s a device that will suck you in to its usability - the way Apple products do.  You just get used to the way the function and you don’t want to go back.  Other hardware manufacturers aren’t just going to lose users for one generation of a phone; they will be lost to the iPhone for years to come.

Personally, I’m about as die-hard a Windows Mobile fan as you can find.  And you want to hear a sadly honest admission: the 3G iPhone is enticing.  A year ago I laughed at the iPhone for its wimpy EDGE connectivity and its lack of MS Office interoperability, but it’s a year later and those mistakes have been fixed.  And I have no new options for WinMo.

Is the new iPhone that much cooler?  No.  But by dropping the price to $200 and being the only cool new phone on the market this summer, it will win.  The damn thing can’t even copy and paste (yep, that is correct), but it will still be the best offering on the market.

9 Responses

  1. eric Says:

    It’s too bad that no one can get their acts together. I agree with many of your points and, in fact, am terrified at the prospect of buying an iphone 3g because i know i won’t be able to leave the brand.

    Lucky for me, i won’t be rushing to buy it on the 11th because i have an alternative contract till the end of october.

    That gives competition until q4 08 to give me an alternative choice, otherwise i get sucked into the singularity that is apple.

  2. Zach Says:

    @Eric-

    Welcome to the blog! I’m in a similar boat actually- my contract is technically only 16 months into a 24, but I know something that few people know: if you’re willing to sign on for another two years- then you can pretty much get upgrade prices anytime within 12 months left.

    So I’ve begun watching now. I’m hoping and praying that the Touch Pro will make it to ATT soon- it’s not everything I want, but it’s a step in the right direction.

    But I love your attitude of “terrified at the prospect of buying an iPhone” - exactly. And the worst part is: you’ll love it.

  3. Greg N Says:

    I’m an Apple fanboy but I have put off the iPhone because of the price of switching networks(I have verizon) and the phone’s price but with that new price it makes it too good to pass.

    Not to mention, I’m a sufferer of PIPS or Pre iPhone Purchase Syndrome. Its begins with finding all the faults in your phone and current network and eventually ends up with the purchase of an iPhone.

    Verizon’s network is great, for other people. It seems to continuously drop calls for me and my BB8830 has no camera and freezes a lot. iPhone here I come.

  4. Zach Says:

    @Greg N
    Well you are just made for the iPhone. The PIPS thing happened to me too when I was with Verizon, but it was less about the iPhone and more like CVPSCTAE, which more complicatedly stands for “Crappy Verizon Phones Sucks Compared To Anyone Else”

    And incidentally I waited and waited for an updated WinMo device from VZW for six months of reps lying to me (”it’s coming next week, I swear”). I finally bit the bullet and switched to ATT - the phone I was waiting for came out seven months later and by then was less powerful than what I had anyway. Damn glad I didn’t wait.

    But yeah. Get yourself an iPhone and love it.

  5. Drew Says:

    what’s the over/under on Zach getting an iPhone? Shall we put it at 9 months?

  6. Zach Says:

    @Drew

    Ha! Good call… but actually I will be doing something pretty shocking in the next six months.

    Abandoning HTC!

    I know, I know. Hard to believe.

    Until I read this: a nine page head to head battle between the HTC Diamond vs. the Samsung Omnia. That’s right- a 5mp WinMo device!

    But no vga and no keyboard … still not sure.

  7. Dale Says:

    Zach, do you read Robert Cringely’s column? Here is a great article about the 3G iPhone and Cringely’s prediction that Apple will soon take over the business market.

    http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20080613_005065.html

  8. Zach Says:

    @dale

    Awesome article. I agree with every bit of it… except for one part, with which I couldn’t disagree more:

    “That market is willing to pay something for elegance or convenience, but better still for elegance AND convenience. That’s how Apple could charge $99 per year for .Mac and for the successor to .Mac, MobileMe. There is at least $60 in profit for Apple hiding inside that $99 price.”

    No friggin way. This is way .Mac hasn’t taken off. Is it cool? Yeah. Is it worth a hundred a year? Maybe… but in the “web 2.0 economy” (”lack of economy”) it doesn’t matter because people don’t pay for things.

    The way I see it, Google is free and thus the bigger competition.

    But wait… if Apple starts charging- it will make paying for online services popular… making it ok for MS to charge… opening up the market! MS should be happy about Apple’s entrance to the market!

    I’m all over the place here.

  9. The iPhone 3G Changed the Game | Ampers & Dot Says:

    […] Spending The new iPhone is $200 with a plan.  That’s awesome and new and I like it.  As I’ve argued before, the iPhone 3G’s low price forced the market to drop down to compete.  I’m completely […]

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