Ampers & Dot

A few months ago a colleague of mine at Forrester published a report claiming that “The Smartphone is Dead” (clients only). The argument, with which I fully agree, is that as even the dumbest of phones gains “smart” features and functions, the concept of a dichotomous world of “smart” and “dumb” phones makes no sense.

It’s a fantastic report and has a great series of recommendations on what this means for the broader scope for Consumer Product Strategists, and I was reminded of the research when I saw this YouTube video (in German, which might actually help its cause):

Oh, so your phone has an App for that? Well this phone has hardware for that. Now is this a “smart” phone, or a really dumb idea?

Ok, sure this is a joke, but it brings up a good (and hilariously animated) point: how much function do we really need in our phones? At what point are we overly depending on a single device? Now don’t get me wrong, I’m all about convergence, but how much convergence is too much?

It’s like TV/VCR/DVD combos. How many of these out there still have three functioning parts? My guess is that over 80% of them have at least one of the three components in a less-than-functional state. And once one component breaks, then you either a) have to replace all three or b) have to replace part of it with an additional device giving you a big clunking TV/VCR/DVD connected to a DVD player.

But then there’s the other side of this argument: what if your device only does one thing and instead of a converged device, you carry many devices? I know people who carry one phone for calls, a BlackBerry for emails, and an iPod for media. This isn’t so crazy, right? Well thanks to smarter devices, it seems a little crazier now than ever before.

Converged devices, like the iPhone, have gained so much popularity because of their ability to eliminate the need for carrying multiple gadgets. Maybe a converged Phone, VCR, Toaster, Car-Charger, Printer, etc. is indeed in our future. So what does this do to the market? Mainly, I think it makes single-function devices considerably less attractive in the broader landscape of gadgets.

If, in the future, cell phones have image-stabilized, 12mp, zoomable cameras - we won’t need point-and-shoots. If laptops integrated 3G connections better, would we need MiFis? If phones have 3D, graphics accelerated gaming - would we need Gameboys? (Apple’s hoping the answer is “No”.) And if cell phones have SMS, email, or web connectivity, would we need a Twitter Peek - a device that only does Twitter? Well… no.

And that’s my point. Single-function devices are in trouble as converged devices take over consumer’s pockets. Will we ever get to a point where our phones make toast? I sure hope so. But in the meantime I think three things make sense: 1) only converge functions that naturally fit together, 2) don’t buy any converged device that integrates VHS, and 3) be leery of single-function devices.

The smartphone may be dead - but I look forward to seeing what new smart features converge in future devices.