Ampers & Dot

A year back I wrote a post about my 2009 Tech Resolutions. Well what’s the point of resolutions if I’m not accountable for them? So today I want to look back and see how well I did. Then, assuming I don’t get too depressed from my ‘09 performance, I’ll make a few new resolutions for the upcoming year. Let’s dive right in:

2009 Resolutions:

• Keep better control over my RSS feeds. This is a big win for me. Over 2009 I was much more flexible with my RSS feeds, in that I cut off of feeds that were too noisy (or too stale) and added feeds that were either more personally focused or specifically relevant. This has made my RSS reader cleaner and easier to manage, while delivering better content than ever.
• Help at least five people quit AOL. I helped three. So that’s not too bad.
• Make 40-50% of tweets replies. I just checked and I’m around 25-30%, about half my goal. It’s a good wake-up-call to see this resolution and something I’m going to try at again.
• Sign up at least three friends to Twitter. I likely helped sign up 20+ people in ‘09, so this was a nice over-performance. Though with mainstream media’s constant spotlight on Twitter, this was fish in a barrel.
• Contribute more in online Forums. Huge failure here. If I contributed 5% in ‘08, then I was likely at 2% in ‘09… I’ll need to keep working on this one.
• Buy ZERO computers. Another big failure. Enough said.
• Redesign my website. Potentially the biggest failure on the list. This will remain a priority in ‘10 (see below).
• Use more features of Facebook and LinkedIn. A small success! In 2009 I started using these networks much, much more. I’m still no power-user, but I’ve uploaded pictures, kept my profile current, and interacted with friends and colleagues.
• Write more conversational blog posts. Another moderate success! I definitely wrote significantly fewer posts in ‘09 (as predicted) but my post-to-comment ration went from 1:2.4 to 1:3.1 - I’m proud of that and would like to keep seeing that number climb.

That’s a relatively successful year! So here’s what I’m planning for 2010:

• Buy ZERO computers. None. Not even one…
• Redesign my website. Just do it. (Ok, now on to new ones:)
• Drop to one Netflix disc. I started 2009 with three discs, but thanks to Netflix Instant (and Xbox 360 integration) I’ve been able to cut back to two. Netflix Instant is an amazing feature and I plan to rely on it only more this year. This will be pretty contingent on Netflix adding more available instant movies, but I don’t see that being too big a problem.
• Evangelize the cloud. I’ve begun relying on Microsoft’s Live Mesh and it’s amazing. Syncing files between multiple computers (between work, home desktop, home laptops, etc (see resolution #1)) Mesh has changed my life. With that and Dropbox, I aim to set up friends and family with these tools - to rely less on faulty external harddrives and more on online options.
• Be more open minded about mobile OS preferences. In 2009 I blogged a LOT about Windows Mobile, some about Android, and a little about BlackBerry… oh, and just a little about the iPhone. I mentioned Palm’s Web OS twice and Symbian almost never. In 2010 I can’t imagine losing interest in Windows Mobile - but I’d like to get more involved with other platforms too as this will help me perfect my mobile expertise. For example, there were dozens of complaints about the iPhone that I didn’t even know about until I got one…
• Engage more online. This is a bit of a leftover from last year, but with greater context. I want to interact with followers more on Twitter, friends on Facebook, connections on LinkedIn, comment more on blogs I read, and answer more questions in forums. The whole point of social media is the “social” part - time for me to contribute more.

So that’s it. Let’s see how well I do.

Have a happy and techy 2010!

Since posting my thoughts on sponsored conversations last week, I’ve had a number of fun discussions around the topic. During my last post, I asked readers to write me to make a case for why they deserved the free W2353 Smart Series monitor that LG sent me - and I’d ship it off to whoever was in greatest need of an upgrade. I expected to hear a number of good stories about 16bit color screens, 10″ panels, and ginormous CRTs (yes, I heard about each of these - and we’ll get to that), but I also expected to hear some backlash on my sponsored post.

But, to my surprise, I didn’t actually get one bit of negative feedback. I expected to hear from readers about the moral and ethical boundaries in blogging, what I owe my readers, how writing a sponsored post is “selling out” - but I guess that was really just my own insecurities about talking up a product that a company sent me, because no one really seemed all that worried about it.

In fact, I ended up hearing from a lot of readers and most of you found it pretty cool.

I heard from a number of readers who I didn’t know were out there - because normally I only hear from the small percentage of you that comment - and it was refreshing and awesome. Mainly, because a) it reassured me that I have really great readers and b) each of you that reached out said great things about my sponsored post (sure, maybe you were sucking up so you could get a chance at the free monitor… but I don’t mind!). I also heard from a number of regular commenters too, the loyal few that I know are there, and they seemed to like the sponsored post too - which was helpful because knowing I didn’t rock the boat with my active readers was critical.

Basically, everyone liked the post, enjoyed my take on the topic, and thought that I was giving something away was pretty sweet. So first of all, thanks! Because I couldn’t do it without you. No, seriously.

If it weren’t for readers, this would just be a diary (and an embarrassingly lame one). The reason I blog, is to share my thoughts and opinions with people who have similar interests. And now that enough people who share my interests have found me, I can share even cooler things, like free monitors. This makes my blog more interesting and readers more interested. So seriously, thanks!

So anyway, onto the contest winner:

Some of you wrote in with very funny stories and solid reasoning for your candidacy for the free monitor, but the winner in my book (which, as the sole judge, is all that matters) is David from California with his broken Dell laptop!

David’s story goes:

I could really use this monitor because for the last 10 months I have been using an old Dell laptop with a busted screen. I got the computer free from my friend, and doesn’t have a warranty. But it only works with the screen is folded almost all the way open, at about 165 degrees. This is especially frustrating because if it goes past 165 degrees then the whole computer shuts off so I have to keep it perfectly propped open at the right angle. After 10 months of this, my neck is killing me from hunching over and I’m ready to quit using a computer all together.

Now, while I was tempted to tell David that there is probably a pretty easy way to fix it by tinkering in the screen’s hinge housing, there’s one main reason this is a winner in my book: David’s apparently been uncomfortably adjusting himself to a broken computer, instead of adjusting his broken computer to him. And that just sounds awful and totally deserving of the “Smart” comfort features in the LG W2353. David can dock his broken laptop right into the monitor and never have to look at the open-face madness he’s grown accustomed to. So David, email me your address and I’ll ship it off to you this week.

So thus ends a sponsored conversation: LG got me to plug its monitors, I got two post ideas out of it, you guys wrote me with some awesome stories, and David got a free neck-saving upgrade.

Now even though I don’t see myself letting this blog get overrun by product contests anytime soon, I’m glad I experimented with the concept, and I fully understand the benefits. In short, the reason this worked out so well? I disclosed the sponsored nature of the post and was completely honest about my opinion of the product (seriously, I still wish the thing had real buttons…).

So apparently we’re in a recession. At least that’s what I hear in the news (or at least I would if they’d ever stop talking about Swine Flue). Evidently, consumer spending is down, earnings are down, profits are down, morale is down, budgets are down, and depression is up.

But don’t let all this negativity trick you into thinking no one’s spending: as TechCrunch reports, the domain name “Ad.com” just sold for $1,400,00.00 to a domain holding company (who likely hopes to sell it for more, in the near/long term future). Basically they paid 140,000 times more than Ad.com likely cost in the first place. That’s right: almost a million and a half dollars for a domain name. Yeah, it’s short and short domains are cool… but this purchase seems ridiculous.

Last year I reported on the sale of Pizza.com at a whoppingly stupid price of $2.6m, but those were different times - way back in 2008 when the New Startup to Silicon Valley Engineer ratio was about 1/1.5 and web 2.0 companies were valued beyond the moon. But in 2009 when even the biggest tech giants are struggling to make a profit, how in the world is a $1.4 million domain name worth the investment?

The argument, as I made last year, is that people don’t just randomly type in URLs, they go to search engines to find them. Hell, people even use Google to search for URLs, instead of just typing them in.

So let’s look at Pizza.com a year after its $2.6m sale… what’s the point of this site!? Ugh. Moving on.

No. You know what, let’s not move on yet. Let’s go back to Pizza.com and look at what they’re doing with a $2.6 MILLION domain. It’s a website, about pizza. With Google ads on the sidebar. Amazing.

Alright, now I really need to move on. How about Googling “Pizza”… it’s a) off the first screen, requiring scrolling b) below news results c) below map results d) below the Wikipedia entry, which is basically as helpful as Pizza.com e) below paid ads. I don’t even want to think about how many paid ads on the word “pizza” you could get for $2.6 million… but I’m sure it would be a more valuable move than spending the lump on a domain.

Here’s what it comes down to: in this economy - when companies are conducting layoffs, dollars are tight, and business are timid to invest - it just bothers me to see money wasted like that.

But who knows, maybe in a few years once the economy is back and the web is roaring, the “domain holding” company that purchased Ad.com will be able to flip it to some other dimwitted entity and then who will look stupid?

From my point of view: both of them… Just one will look stupid and rich. But still stupid.

This week, after nearly a year of anticipation from Blackberry junkies, TMobile finally released the Curve 8900. This model (code named Javelin) is a nicely improved follow up to the hugely popular Curve, giving TMobile a contending Blackberry to fight off AT&T’s Bold and Verizon’s Storm. Now all three carriers have exclusivity to a new, next-gen Blackberry - giving “crackberry addicts” from each something pretty to play with.

Blackberries Storm (VZW), Javelin (TMOB), and Bold (ATT) - Courtesy of Engadget

Before I dive in to a rant - I want to address the Curve 8900 and how much of an upgrade it is over the original Curve.

• Better screen - Kevin at JK on the Run even uses the word “love” in bold, when describing the 480×360 display. I can’t even begin to tell you how many pixels that is in such a small space - but let’s just say: PRETTY.
• Incredible form factor - As Sascha Segan from PCMag says it’s the “best of the past three models”. It’s smaller than the original Curve, but with the chicklet QWERTY pad. As slim as the Pearl, but with a Bold size screen. This thing has it all - and is TINY.
• Better Camera - the 3.2 megapixel camera is better than the original Curve, plus has video recording.
• WiFi - Yes, it’s Edge only… but TMobile is still pretty much EDGE only anyway- so the important thing is that the 8900 also has WiFi.

So there- I’ve made the case that this is arguably the best Blackberry on the market (depending on your preferences). So why the post? Because chances are you haven’t even ever heard of this phone. And that really bothers me.

When AT&T launched the Bold this fall there were Blackberry nuts (sounds like a crappy cereal found at Whole Foods…) lining up waiting to fork over $300 WITH contract.

When Verizon launched the Storm you’d have thought it finally had an iPhone, based on the lines at retail stores. VZW spent more promoting the Storm than a governmental bailout (too soon?). But it worked. There was so much buzz around the Storm that people actually got excited to talk about Verizon!

So what the heck happened? Why didn’t TMobile promote the 8900? At all? It’s just sort of there. Even now, months later - Verizon still has a section of its homepage dedicated to the Storm. AT&T has the Bold featured (in between iPhone glamor shots) on its wireless page. TMobile? Nothing.

At the time of this writing - to find the 8900 on the TMobile site you have to go to the phone page, select “Blackberry”… then go to PAGE TWO! Do they even know they have this phone?

I think TMobile missed a big opportunity here and while I have some theories (that all include the Google Phone and/or Steve Jobs), I can’t figure out why there was no push.

I often complain about the lack of marketing for Windows Mobile devices - that there’s never a consistent or clear message, no branding, and overall no marketing support - but this isn’t a problem with Blackberry devices. People love them. They’re buzzworthy. “Blackberry” is almost a colloquialism for email device. So why not push it?

No excuses. So here’s an endorsement: the TMobile Blackberry Curve 8900 is an AWESOME phone.

There: I’ve just done more than TMobile’s entire marketing team.

It’s that time of the year - when we plan to do a bunch of things throughout the rest of the year, that we’ll probably give up on in a few weeks. The Resolution Phenomenon explains why Google search volume for “Gym Membership” and “Quit Smoking” spike significantly every January 1st. But hey, I’ll play the game too - and we’ll see how closely I can stick to my 2009 plan.

So as a devout technology enthusiast, my 2009 tech-related resolutions are to:

• Keep better control over my RSS feeds. I subscribe to a few hundred feeds. This is overwhelming, but through batch processing, speed reading, and skimming so quickly that I don’t really gain much, I’ve learned to deal with it quite well. In 2009 I aim to keep my subscription list clean (remove any feed that isn’t providing value) and under the 1000+ line.
• Help at least five people quit AOL. This really should be on everyone’s list this year, as part of making the world a better place. It’s not that I have a problem with AOL, it’s that I have a serious problem with people paying for email. To me this is like paying for air. AOL knows that it needs a new business model and is adapting to keep up. But while it does this, I just can’t go on knowing that people are paying for the service. If you also want to help friends, family, and other loved ones leave AOL, check out AOLeave.com
  
• Make 40-50% of tweets replies. Twitter, by nature, is more communicative than any other social computing form I know (and I know them all…). Instead of just shouting out to the world, Twitter provides the ability to have conversations with many people: ask questions, get help, answer questions, give help. Unfortunately I’ve found that as I’ve started following more people, I’ve lost focus. By reading a lot of tweets, I don’t actually interact with as many any more. So my 2009 resolution is to aim for 40-50% of my tweets to be replies- AND to have them be to more people, not just the same few over and over. I follow so many awesome people - it’s high-time I get to interact with more of them.
• Sign up at least three friends to Twitter. Look, Twitter is going to hit it big in the coming years. Its reach will extend beyond the early adopters (2007) tech and marketing types (2008), in 2009 Twitter is going to reach out to more of the mainstream - and I don’t want my non-early-adopting-tech/marketing friends to be on there too.
• Contribute more in online Forums. I’m pretty active in a number of tech forums (few coding forums, many Windows Mobile forums, and a handful of misc. discussion boards), but in previous years “pretty active” has meant reading a lot… in 2009 I’d like to give more back to the forums that have helped me so much - I’ll do this by answering more questions and contributing where possible.
• Buy ZERO computers. I don’t need another one - but I haven’t needed one in a while and that hasn’t stopped me… so I’m finally to a point where I can no longer justify buying another. In 2009 I will add NO computers to my home collection. You know… unless there’s a really good sale on some netbooks…
• Redesign my website. It’s time for a new look (and possibly has been since I launched this design…). No idea when I’ll actually get around to this one. But in 2009 I will redesign this site, as well as a handful of others that I oversee. Oh, and I want to do it myself - get back into the fun of CSS.
• Use more features of Facebook and LinkedIn. I research social technologies for a living, but use them rather weakly. I’ve still never uploaded pictures to Facebook, or written a recommendation on LinkedIn. In 2009 I want to get better at using both - and connect with more great people on each. Let’s start now: Zach on Facebook - Zach on LinkedIn.
• Write more conversational blog posts. Ok, I’m not going to delude myself into thinking I can write more. I’m just not a high volume poster. I tried that… and it didn’t really work. So in 2009 I want to write better posts - ones that make people think - and then respond. In 2008 my Post-to-Comment ratio was about 1:2.4 - I’m actually pretty happy with that, but I’d like to see it grow to 1:4 by the end of 2009. But of course I can’t do this one without your help.

And that’s it for me. I think that if I complete each of these resolutions by the year’s end I will have had a happy tech year and will be a better person because of it. So what about you? What are your tech resolutions?

A year ago I posted my Wild and Crazy Tech Predictions for 2008 and seeing as how 2008 is winding down here, I thought it would be fun to revisit the predictions to see how well/poorly I did.

So below is a copy of last year’s predictions - with updates on my accuracy in RED. Enjoy! (And sorry to anyone color blind out there… I predict that this post will be worthless for you…)

Here we go:

Social Networks

• Facebook will continue to grow, reaching over 80 Million registered users
  FB is now at 140 million+… I underestimated by about 60 million. We’ll call this a miss, but I was on the right track about the massive growth part…
• At some point in 2008 there will be a revolt of users on Facebook (due to another invasive advertising scandal) resulting in a large dropoff of traffic. It will return to normal in under two weeks.
  I was way off on the “large dropoff” part as well as the “invasive advertising” - but this summer’s redesign pissed off a lot of users. But of course those upset went onto Facebook to complain…
• More small, specifically focused, social networks will pop-up in the first half of the year. By the years’ end they will start going to way of friendster and the big networks will gobble them up.
  Google’s Ning (small social network creator) was huge this year. And although many haven’t been gobbled up, the cream has certainly remained at the top.
• Google’s Open Social will help all of this happen as it will make it simpler to build small specialty social networks interoperable, but it will also make it simple for the big networks to adapt their features and user bases.
  Hit! Read here.
• MySpace will continue to look more and more like Facebook with each redesign; Facebook will stubbornly not change their look, resulting in third-party applications for customizing the look (think of Skins or Themes) of your Facebook portal.
  Myspace’s recent redesign is strikingly similar to Facebook. And Facebook changed its layout, but not its look. I still think this one is on the way.
• Social Networking will take its first real steps into the mobile world through applications, not miniature browser portals. Beyond the simple apps or mobile sites out now, MySpace, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc, will all have their on client-server apps for Windows Mobile, Android, Symbian, and other dumbphones.
  This was a definite hit. With the iPhone app store there are now MySpace and Facebook apps for iPhones - and similar applications for Android, Symbian, and Windows Mobile. And I was certainly correct that this would be a real step: one million status updates in a day…

Blogs

• Sifry (Technorati) will report the existence of over 100 million blogs and a new quarter million created daily.
  133 million total - and blah blah blah new ones per day. Reason for the “blah” - see next prediction.
• Bloggers will no longer put up with Technorati’s inconsistent service- a clone will steal the market by offering similar service with better functionality.
  Yup. And there are now many better offerings… let’s just go with Guy Kawasaki’s AllTop for starters.
• More celebs, athletes, and high-profile figures will start blogging as themselves.
  Definite hit. Twitter has helped this too - but check out this post for examples.
• Due to Gawker Media’s (Gizmodo, Valleywag, Wonkette, Consumerist, Kotaku, etc) new commission system for its bloggers, posting will decrease to a readable amount. This will also make Gawker and Valleywag writers stoop to paparazzi-like tactics to get new stories. It won’t be good.
  To avoid any further discussion on this one- let’s just say “yes” I’m totally correct.
• I’ll keep up the posts for a while, until I get too busy and frustrated that I don’t have time. Then I’ll write a big come-back post apologizing and be extra witty for two straight weeks. This process will repeat a month later.
  I was wrong here. I mean: yes- I stopped posting frequently. But no- I never apologized, nor did I get “extra witty”
• When GTA IV comes out I will not post for an entire week.
  This was less of a prediction and more of a warning.

Mobile Phones

• Apple will release the second gen iPhone. It will come in 8 and 16gb varieties, both sporting 3g HSDPA (high speed download packet access) but not HSUPA (same thing but with Upload).
  100% correct. iPhone 3G.
• Apple will institute stricter measures to ensure the new iPhone can’t be jailbroken or unlocked. Less than 5 days after release the iPhone will be jailbroken and unlocked.
  Close. It took eight days.
• Android phones will run on ATT, TMobile and VZW. They will be disappointing at first, but by the end of 2008 will be solid competitors in the market.
  I’m especially sad to be wrong about this one. TMobile got exclusive rights - which pushed off any competitors (and arguably killed the initial development frenzy that could have made it more powerful)
• HTC’s first “gPhone” will be called ugly by the mass media, mainly because they have no idea what a pda-phone is supposed to look like.
  Here’s some food for your mind-grapes: “Ugly“
• Google’s Android competition will be won by a pretty simple application that already exists for Windows Mobile. People will ignore this fact and be wowed by its functionality.
  I couldn’t be more happy to be so wrong. The Android competition produced some awesomely innovative apps. Check them out here.
• Windows Mobile 7 will be leaked and sadly it will be a disappointment. The interface will be drastically improved, but the functionality will remain sluggish.
  Now here’s one that I’m quite suprised about. Windows 7 was not only NOT leaked, but it was pushed back a FULL YEAR at the minimum. But, to keep my prediction streak alive, I was pretty close when applied to the previously unmentioned Windows Mobile 6.5
• HTC will release a 5mp Camera phone. Nokia will release an 11mp camera phone.
  HTC’s first 5mp Camera Phone was released this fall: the TouchHD. But it wasn’t Nokia with the crazy camera phone - that goes to Samsung with its upcoming 12mp Marvel.
• A large amount of standard phones released in 2008 will have touch screen capabilities. Others will have qwerty pads.
  This prediction is so accurate that it almost sounds dumb today. But a year ago - pretty much only PDA phones had touch screens and/or keyboards.
• Bluetooth stereo headsets will gain style points - and bluetooth phone headsets will finally stop sounding so crappy.
  How the hell is this one not right? Why do bluetooth headseats still suck? I can’t believe it, but I’m wrong here.
• Sprint’s WiMax will still suck and fail to roll-out.
  Hahahahahahahaha. I’m sorry, but seriously guys. Come on!
• Here’s a biggie: Google will win the 700mhz Auction for over $8 Billion (I’ll write a lot more on this later)
  Ugh. I was wrong. There - I said it. Verizon won the auction - and got the C block for a mere $4.5 billion. Chump change. Hopefully some good comes of this…

Web TV

• The continuing spread of Fiber Optics will help IPTV exist through set top boxes thanks to ATT and Verizon (now roll-out in Boston!)
  Notice how I didn’t predict Verizon FiOS to roll-out in Boston, but angrily stated it? That’s because it still hasn’t happened. But the rest did.
• The networks will continue to adapt their online offerings (see: Hulu), learning that iTunes is a horrible deal for everyone (but apple).
  Who even needs cable anymore?
• YouTube spin-offs will keep popping up- the successful ones will be acquired, the unsuccessful ones will fail miserably.
  This is the one prediction that I don’t really understand anymore. I think I meant Hulu like sites… but it seems like everything in online video is doing well these days.
• User Generated Content will always be funny and a huge part of online video, but as hosting sites adapt HD standards there will be a larger market for “Straight to Download”, professionally generated content. People will have trouble adopting this in 2008, mistakenly relating it to “Straight to Video”.
  The “Straight to Download” concept floated around a bit - and we’re now starting to see shows debut online - which is both awesome and pretty close to my prediction.
• Online video will start dropping the in-program commercials in favor of over-lay advertising. Some sites will do this well and will be popular. Some sites will integrate far too invasive overlays and upset viewers.
  Yep. YouTube rolled this out - and has done it quite well (at least compared to pre-rolls. Please, let me never encounter a pre-roll again…)
• XBOX 360 will finally gain full IPTV features.
  Sadly wrong. But the kickass Netflix integration paved the way for future streaming apps.
• Viral marketing will become even stranger and more random, resulting in a completetly misconstrued add which crosses line in the Controversial/Funny bell-curve and gives the company more negative publicity than anything else.
  This probably happened- but I’m afraid to search for examples.

General Tech

• Apple will release an “ultra portable” laptop - it will weigh around 2lbs and have a 9-10″ screen.
  Close… The MacBook Air is 3lbs and has a 13″ screen.
• Asus will release a follow up to the Eee PC, at 9″ and 2.5lbs. The two computers will be put head-to-head by every one of the big tech blogs.
  100% right about the eee PC 901 - but unfortunately I can’t find a picture of the MBA and the eee next to each other… so we’ll scratch this one.
• HDDVD vs BlueRay will not be resolved. The 150 early adopters of each will be pissed. The general public will be happy during holiday season 2008 when prices on each drops below $150.
  HA! I actually remember when this post was published in February thinking to myself “crap… this one is going to look really dumb in my 2008 predictions post…”. But at least I was right about the price drop for the holiday season… no- still sucks to be so wrong.
• LCD TV prices will continue to fall as the first OLED and SED TVs hit the consumer market (at astronomical prices).
  OLED TVs hit the US this year and at outrageous prices - and LCD prices indeed continued to fall.
• The PS3 will drop in price again, reaching $350. Then it will be release in a variety of colors.
  Only two colors - and still $400. Also - still overpriced.
• The Nintendo Wii shortage will get better, but it still won’t be easy to find one.
  True.
• A new Wii will be released by December 2008 and it will come in multiple colors, will have a built in DVD drive and multimedia capabilities… but you won’t be able to get one anywhere.
  False! Damnit. Why not!?
• 2008 will be a slow year for the iPod, but each current version will be re-released in a new array of colors.
  Pretty close. Many called the iPod nano an incremental upgrade… but it comes in lots of fun colors!
• GMail will up each user’s server space to 10GB and will provide an option to upload files for them to host. The service will be free.
  It’s only up to 7+GB - and while this service exists and is free, Google hasn’t yet rolled out its version.
• Digg will be bought by a big corporation - and its users will flee requiring the big company to reinvent a user-supported community. This will fail.
  This prediction will fail. Digg thrwarts potential buyers.
• More tech Venture Capitalists will follow the FunnyorDie.com model and invest in Hollywood. This will also fail.
  This happened, briefly, but no one really seemed to care.
• Quad core computers will be more widely available and affordable. People will still find Vista to be bulky and slow.
  I’m sick of Vista bashing. I’m leaving this one untouched.
• XP will still be an option for new laptops at the end of 2008.
  XP will still be an option for new laptops until May 30th, 2009
• Linux will continue to gain market share (maybe as large as 3%) through sales of notebooks and desktops at Walmart and Target.
  Big win here. Completely accurate.

And that’s it!

I think I could have been a little more aggressive on some of the predictions - but overall I’m pretty proud at how I did here (aside from the HD-DVD pick… ugh. I’ll never let myself live this one down). In the end it looks like I’m batting a little above 600 - not amazing, but fun nevertheless.

As for 2009 predictions? Well, I’m working on that one. But actually getting paid for it this time… so unfortunately that means they won’t show up here any time soon.

But I’ll give you a little hint at a big prediction to tide you over: Betamax and HDDVD merge to create a Voltron-like format that takes over the world… get ready for it.

In the coming months I will likely be working on a Forrester Research document covering different types of advertising with video games and being a true professional, I decided to dedicate a full afternoon this past weekend playing as many video games as possible - to get a better understanding of just what these things are all about (yes, I do love my job).

I currently have an Xbox 360 and a Wii, so to warm up I decide to spend a few hours of killing Nazi Zombies in Call of Duty: 16 World at War on my Xbox. Then I moved onto Halo 3 where I was verbally assaulted by a very angry girl 12 year old boy. So I switched over to the Wii and played a few rounds of Tiger Woods, became completely enamored with World of Goo (thanks Jammo for the recommendation!), and finally decided to switch back to the Xbox 360 and settle on playing some video game soccer.

Quick side story: I’m a long time soccer gamer, been playing since the original diagonal-scrolling FIFA International Soccer, and had been a loyal FIFA player, until the game got all arcadey in 2005, at which point I switched to PES and have never looked back… until this year… and after a long and poorly fought battle, I idiotically own both FIFA ‘09 and PES 2009… Anyway- it’s weird the way you can only like one. It’s like Pepsi and Coke, or Nike and Reebok. Somehow we pledge our allegiance and follow accordingly.

Ok, back to the point of this post.

So I’m playing an early round Champions League game of Real Madrid vs. Galatasary (yes, I know that choosing Real Madrid is lame- but I went to a game at Santiago Berenbeu a few years ago and wanted to see what the digital stadium looked like… give me a break!), and a few minutes into the first half I notice something strange.

See anything odd about this picture? No? Well let me remind you that I’m playing PES 2009 on an Xbox 360… now look again, a little closer:

Yep: that’s an add for Playstation… on my Xbox 360. What?

For Sony (makers of the Playstation), this is completely wasted advertising spend. Playstation and Xbox are similarly polarized like Pepsi and Coke. You are allowed to like one or the other - certainly not both. And once you do choose your alliance, you are instructed to look down on the other platform. Therefore this is some of the worst targeted advertising I’ve ever seen. I mean, can you imagine going to the Apple website to buy an iPod and see banner ads for Zunes?

So what went wrong? Did Sony purposefully put Playstation ads on an Xbox game? I can’t imagine. But, did Sony pay an ad agency to place ads in video games, without checking where the ads were going? Very likely. What do you think happened?

But anyway, at least I noticed the ad in the first place and that’s better than I can say for most advertising. Step 1: get people to notice ads. Step 2: target ads so they make sense!

Well that’s it from me - I’m off to play more video games do more research for work.

Hope everyone has a happy, healthy, safe, and wonderful holiday season. Enjoy!

Only three days after posting this comment about how I don’t fully utilize my 10 month old eee PC, it was stolen from my bedside table during what I can only assume was the most-drugged-out robbery of all time.

Yes, my apartment in a Beacon Hill brownstone was broken into last week - I came home from work to find my apartment door broken off the hinges and the place in half-disarray. I say “half” because somehow (luckily) the thieves didn’t make it into the living room where video games and electronics are, but managed to ransack my fiancee’s jewelry box (interjected side note to crooks: I’m normally not a violent person, but if I EVER come across you wearing my fiancee’s grandmother’s ring, or her twenty first birthday watch then you had better hope the police arrive quickly) and they happened to take my change dish containing less than $3.50, but miss the digital camera sitting near it.

If you want more of the depressingness of this story- you can check out my twitter feed from last Thursday on through the weekend… but I don’t suggest doing that. It got pretty mopey, I think. (Second side note: Thanks so much to all the twitter support from my tweople - it helped to know others have been through this kind of mess and have survived to tell about it. Seriously, thank you twitter support group!)

So anyway, the point of this post. I want to talk about my stolen netbook. I want to tell everyone how awesome it was - because my last blog post might have reflected negatively on it- and that’s not fair to be the last thing I’ve said about it. I loved my little netbook. And here’s why:

• It was uber-gadgety. The number of times people actually stopped to look at it, or marveled at its minuscule size was more than any other gadget I’ve owned. It became a burden, because I could never use it without having to explain its size first, but that’s the fun in cool gadgets, right?
• I suped it up. The EEE cost me $400 when it came out - which is peanuts for a laptop. But within a month I added: $60 for 2GB of RAM, $60 for an additional 8GB of memory, and $80 to import in a Touchscreen and microcontroller kit. I had plans for more suping (LED keyboard light and improved heatsinks) but never had a chance. These additions made the little guy as awesome as it was - and I’m sure the robbers will never even notice the second hard drive.
• It booted XP in under 20 seconds. I swear: one time I got it to boot in 16. No joke. I slipstreamed and configured the lightest XP build possible - and tweaked the startup process so severely that I could get a Firefox window going and figure out the Final Jeopardy answer before the end of the song (not that I ever did… but it was good to know that I could!). I promise you that the crooks will never notice the difference.
• It ran XP smoothly. My EEE came with the Xandros OS - which I liked, but wanted more. Also, I like to tinker… so here’s the progression of operating systems on my netbook: Xandros, XP Pro (full), XP Pro (NP Lited), Xandros, Ubuntu, eeeXUbuntu, eeeBuntu, Kubuntu, XP Pro (custom 20 second boot build). It’s worth noting that I like weekend projects… (click that picture - it’s awesome.)
• I was used to typing on the little keyboard. Sure, it took me a month of constant use (and lots of typos), but I got used to it. I’m guessing it will take the robbers a long time to figure it out. Or a very short time to sell the thing…
• It was insanely portable. Ultimately the EEE’s selling point was also its demise: it could easily be picked up and taken wherever. Including some crack den or pawn shop. But while it was mine I loved that I could throw it in a bag without worry (Solid Slate HD means no moving parts!) and it was so light I would forget it was there.

And many, many more reasons. See, as much as it might not have been the perfect computer for me- I made it my perfect computer. I still used my home desktop for other computing needs and have a jumbo laptop for (presumed) portability. But the netbook was a perfect for couch surfing, flights, quick meetings, killing time, playing games, and throwing in a bag to have internet wherever I went. It was awesome.

So that’s it. I’ll miss you, little guy.

After far too much build up through vague foreshadowing Tweets, I am pleased to announce that I have joined Forrester Research.  As of this week I am now a Researcher serving Interactive Marketing professionals, working to understand the present and future of the interactive marketing and social computing worlds.

To me this move is incredibly exciting because over the last year as a Social Media Consultant, not a day of work went by without a reference to Forrester.  In almost every client meeting I would bring up either Forrester’s leading edge research, the exemplary blogging of Senior Analyst Jeremiah Owyang (from whom I first learned of this position), or the industry leading book Groundswell, by Principal Analyst Josh Bernoff (and former Analyst Charlene Li).  Basically for Social Computing there truly isn’t a better place in the world to be.

Another inspiration in my move is Forrester’s new Community Manager, John Cass (read about John’s background and reasons for joining Forrester).  It’s impressive to me that Forrester brought in such an expert to oversee the corporate social media strategy as this shows a true understanding of how to properly engage in and harness social media for a large, publicly traded company.  (And I look forward to actually sitting down with him when he returns from vacation…)

Lastly, and most awesomely, I’m now in a position that instead of eagerly awaiting the next Forrester report to guide my work, I get to help create the path for others.  In my mind this is very, very cool.  In a technology influence market that is rapidly evolving, nothing appeals to me more than understanding the next steps.

In my first week so far I have met some of the nicest and smartest people, so I’m even more enthusiastic about my move than I thought possible.  AND, exciting for you, I’ve been informed of other Forrester openings, so if interested send me an email or DM me on Twitter.

Thanks to all for the kind support (even @DmitriGunn who (unsuccessfully) argued that I had “sold out”); it has been a fun and reassuring week talking to others offline that respect Forrester as much as I do.

Now it’s time to update all my online profiles- a task that requires far more time and effort than I have time and effort for…

So today was scheduled to be about selling t-shirts through your web 2.0 company in search of profit (and amazingly, no: I’m not joking), but because I’m short on time (got caught up reading Groundswell last night -and yes, if you find anything I write here interesting, go buy it now) it’s going to be a short-on-content post. BUT- this is another challenge for my blogging ability: can I actually write a short post?

Here’s the short of it- make a startup, do something to drive in traffic, then sell t-shirts to the hoards of visitors. It works pretty well actually.

Good Example (though not entirely web 2.0ey): Homestarrunner.com. I mean, these guys built something so amazingly hilarious that it drove in millions of viewers. There were no ads on the site, no membership fees. Just a t-shirt store. And they cleaned up.

In the middle of the t-shirt craze is Cafepress, a pretty cool site that helps people make their own shirts to sell. You can even set up a little shop on Cafepress- they take a cut of your sales- but you get to make fun shirts. Definitely something that’d be fun to play around with at the very least and the interactivity can be deemed as web 2.0ish, I think.

And on th worst-example end of the spectrum you have VC Wear a company that forgot the “do something” part of this business model. Instead of driving in traffic first, VC Wear just sells shirts targeted towards people who find making fun of web 2.0 really funny. I mean seriously, who makes fun of web 2.0 stuff? There’s no audience for that. Right?

And that’s it- I wrote a short post!