Ampers & Dot

Well, it seems the High Def video disc format war is officially over, about two years before I predicted and with a winner that I never would have predicted… Congrats BluRay… I guess.

Wait, let’s back up a second here. DVD format war? What? Huh? What’s this HD-DVD all about? And what’s that- upscaling DVD players are just about as good looking to the naked eye? But now my DVDs aren’t good any more and I would have to rebuy them all on a new format? What is a BluRay? Won’t 1080p eventually become obsolete anyway?

You know what’s weird- all of those are valid questions, which is way I find this all so silly in the first place. I actually should provide a little background as the average consumer out there doesn’t know that this stupid format war was even going on.

Here’s the one sentence version: High Definition TVs are becoming more common, which has created a new standard in video picture quality, which means that old DVDs are slightly below that quality, and in turn means that new formats of High Definition quality video be available to watch on High Definition TVs, but since download speeds aren’t quite ready for HD streaming, companies took it upon themselves to create a new physical medium to deliver this new quality of video, suggesting that consumers be required to repurchase older movies in “true hd”…

Ok, so maybe that should have been more like six sentences…

But yes, I was wrong. First, I was wrong thinking that it would take a much longer time to find a “winner”, but then again, I couldn’t have predicted Michael Bay’s influence of movie studios…

And secondly, I was wrong predicting HD-DVD over bluray. Maybe because I’m an XBOX guy and the 360 has ties with HD-DVD, while Sony’s PS3 sports a nifty bluray player, and maybe because the whole name thing (”HD-DVD” means “High Definition Digital Video Disc”, “Blu-Ray” means nothing to me, but sounds like Blurry, when you notice there is no “e” in Blu), but I really though that HD-DVD was going to win this won.

Fortunately, I wasn’t confident enough to actually purchase an HD-DVD player, but for those who did- I can only offer my condolences (not that I actually know anyone who bought one…), and this list of fun things to do with your now-obsolete machine.

The question in all of this, is: did you notice? Did this format war have any impact on your life, whatsoever? I mean, hell- I still have The Great Muppet Caper on VHS and you know what- the quality looks fine to me!

As downloads are becoming increasingly popular and HD video is becoming streamable, who cares about more physical media?

The way I see it, the physical age is dying- no more discs, tapes, or even thumb-drives. In a few years we’ll be streaming (not downloading) HD video from server farms around the world. Nothing will be localized. And in the time it takes for that to happen- I still won’t give in to buying a BluRay player*

And hey, if you want to pick up a cheap HDDVD player, check out ebay… or go pickup a brand new upscaling dvd player!

*that’s a prediction that will likely come back to haunt me…

Alright, I’m getting pretty sick of starting every post with “sorry I haven’t posted in a while” and what’s worse is that I’m heading out of town and likely won’t post anything new for another eight days. So damn, I’ve already started to slide. But tell you what: I’m going to make up for it! . . . eventually. Not yet though.

Today is a topic about which I’m greatly excited. There will be a few crazy terms, a few insane numbers, and a lot of speculation, but one thing’s for sure: this is a topic that will change your life.

The FCC’s Auction 73: the 700 megahertz spectrum.

Let’s get into it. First off, what is the 700mhz spectrum? This is the frequency on which old TV signal is transferred. You know the way you can hook up an antennae to a TV and have a few channels pop up? That’s the 700mhz spectrum.

Why is it for sale? Because the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) ruled that all TV signals must be digital by February 17, 2009 - leaving all old analog signals completely unused.

Why would someone want this spectrum? It’s already deployed all throughout the US and has capabilities for insanely fast data transfer. Now here’s where the fun part comes in: fast data transfer speeds in vast parts of America = much, much more than analog TV. This means practically unlimited mobile implications. Cell phones can operate on this spectrum and they would be able to do hundreds (to thousands) of times the download/upload capacity of current generation devices. I’ll get to more of this in a minute.

Who would want this? Everyone. Right now the top contenders are: Verizon (to expand its already strong rural cell coverage and remain the “largest network in blah blah blah”), AT&T (to expand its fairly crappy rural coverage, have even “a couple of bars in a some places” and increase the capabilities of pretty junky smartphones), Frontline Wireless (a startup run by an old-school Apple exec), and … GOOGLE.

Why would Google want the 700mhz Spectrum? To deploy Android, its mobile phone platform. See, Google’s android will be on all networks- this will be an operating system (like Windows or OSX), but for phones- and if Google wins the auction then they control the standards which will be set for any Android phones. If Android can perform perfectly only on the fastest network then Google ends up owning anyone that wants to use its platform… which is everyone. Even if AT&T has a phone running Android, it will need a slice of fast-data-pie to truly utilize the device, so they’ll be forced to turn to the big GOOG for help.

How much money are we talking about? Loads. Absolute loads of money. The reserve price for all five chunks (this is an entire story in itself…) is well over $10 Billion. The main chunk the biggies are fighting for (C chunk) has a reserve of $4.8B alone. As I predicted in my 2008 Predictions Post, Google will win with a bid around $8B. I’m not sure now if my predicted bid price will be met, but if Google buys another chunk… I might be right on.

So what? Why should you actually care?

Short (and confusing) answer: the FCC has ruled that part of this spectrum MUST be “open access”, meaning that “Locked” cell phones, those tied directly to a carrier, are obsolete. Any manufacturer will be able to make a device that runs on this network. No more choosing GSM or CDMA, with an entirely open network, manufacturers can make insane devices that will run on with incredibly fast data speeds… for everyone almost everywhere in America.

Sit with me for a second here as I step back in time (to a few decades before I was born…) and I’ll quote Popular Science’s take on this:

“The last time the government made a change like this was 40 years ago, when the FCC forced telephone companies to open up their lines to third-party products. It wasn’t until after the landline system went open-access that products like answering machines, fax machines and modems hit the market.“

My takeaway on all this: opening up the network means more advancements. This will be a paradigm shift in the way we use mobile gadgets. Imagine having connection speeds beyond WiFi, anywhere you go, inside or outside. Voice over IP will be simple. Video Phones will stream perfectly. TV on your mobile device will not just be lag-free, it will load instantaneously. Internet: everywhere. Internet enabled devices: everything.

Finally: when? This Thursday and Friday. The biggy telcos (and google) will be battling it out in a fairly traditional auction format (add an online component though…) in hour long chunks of bidding, until Friday afternoon when there will be one victor (for each chunk).

But honestly: I don’t care what company ends up bidding the most, all that matters is that it will be the consumers that win this round. And I just can’t wait to see the gadgets that come out of all this! For more reading… heavy and nerdy, check out the FCC site

Enjoy! . . . see you in a week.

CES is wrapping up (if you didn’t know what CES stands for then you might not enjoy this overly nerdy gadget related post…) and if I didn’t write up a summary then I just wouldn’t be fulfilling my responsibility. There’s so much to talk about and I’ve been having a tough time getting my head around all the gadgetry fun and electronically focused awesomeness.

The great part about CES is that it gives gadget-geeks, like myself, a hint at what to expect for the next 12 months. CES is the first leak of all the upcoming devices and toys fr the upcoming year. There’s always a big announcement, that gets everyone all riled up (this year it was Panasonic’s 150 inch TV) but the bigger story of CES are the common themes and trends.

See, one big announcement is fun and all, but rarely is it actually all that as influential. Panasonic’s elephant-sized TV is cool and all, but it also costs nearly $1000 per square inch… how is that remotely applicable to “Consumers”? Don’t get me wrong, I’m ridiculously impressed by a 150 inch HDTV, but what I like about CES the most is seeing what a great deal of companies found to be important to showcase at this … showcase.

So let’s just into the trends that I noted while reading over 2,600 gadget related blog posts during the last four days (that is not an exaggeration).

Thin is in

And no, I’m definitely not talking about Nicole Richie…
The 150″ behemoth may have taken the blue ribbon in the “Holy $(&%” award, but second place surely goes to Pioneer’s 9mm thin TV (no, that wasn’t a typo: nine millimeters) . JVC also announced their 1.5″ thin, 46 wide TV, which will hit shelves this summer. OLED TVs (what we’ll all be replacing LCDs with in four years) were also a rage, seeing as they have amazing clarity along with zero weight or thickness. Both Samsung and Sony unveiled their consumer models this year.

Touchscreen

The single biggest trend of CES 2008: touchscreen everything. Since the iPhone’s announcement a year ago (not at CES, but at MacWorld - more on this later in the week), everyone’s been scrambling to launch a fun touchable gadget. I mean, sure- Windows Mobile has been touch screen for year, but Apple does it and everyone needs to copy…

Basically you couldn’t show a prototype phone at CES unless it had a touchscreen this year. Just look at the following examples: iRiver (makes phones?), Samsung, NeoNode (not-yet-stateside), and many, many more. (And yes, for the record- I did predict this one in my 2008 predictions post.)

There were also touchscreens included in picture frames, video cameras, remotes,and tables. And I’m not even getting into all the Tablet PCs, which were everywhere, because I am going to talk about…

MIDs and UMPCs

Mobile Internet Devices (a term coined by Intel, I believe, to rebrand Ultra Mobile Portable Computers for consumers) are, in my opinion, the coolest and most promising technology out there right now. This is the future, so it was really exciting to see numerous companies take a stab at tiny computers this year.

Asus had a weird looking model, LimePC showed a generically awesome looking model, Samsung announced their new Q1 model and a smaller, less versatile device. iRiver showed an impressively (but maybe too) small device, while LG’s gadget may have stolen my vote, that is- if the HTC’s shift weren’t finally unveiled. I still don’t really get the WiBrain (either by name or formfactor) but like always the OQO (this time with WiMax) wowed everyone. And Intels MID continues to amaze me.

Ultraportable

In case “Ultramobile” is too small for you, how about “Ultraportable”? This is basically a teensy-tiny laptop… who would want one of these things?! I just don’t get it. Oh, wait- I’m writing this on an EeePC… (expect a fun post about this when I hve some time). Because it’s awesome. Oh and the new Eee was leaked this week, along with the following other Ultraportables: Fujitsu’s u810, E-Lead’s Noahpad, and Everex’s Cloudbook.

SO WHAT?

These trends will directly shape the next year of gadget releases. The same way last year’s 103″ tv inspired the 150″, the future will see the following: thin and large tvs; touchscreens on everything; smaller computers; a blurring line between cell-phones and computers.

Overall I rate this year’s CES as one of the best. There really wasn’t one thing that stood out as shockingly cool to me, but I’m more excited to see a lot of companies following trends. The more electronics manufacturers that support the development of these gadgets, the more competitive the market will be. And in no time the technology will adapt and improve into even cooler devices and at some point I’ll actually be able to play with these fun things.

Oh, and if you haven’t yet seen the video from Bill Gates’ final CES Keynote speech- go spend the next five minutes laughing.