Ampers & Dot

A year ago I posted my Wild and Crazy Tech Predictions for 2008 and seeing as how 2008 is winding down here, I thought it would be fun to revisit the predictions to see how well/poorly I did.

So below is a copy of last year’s predictions - with updates on my accuracy in RED. Enjoy! (And sorry to anyone color blind out there… I predict that this post will be worthless for you…)

Here we go:

Social Networks

• Facebook will continue to grow, reaching over 80 Million registered users
  FB is now at 140 million+… I underestimated by about 60 million. We’ll call this a miss, but I was on the right track about the massive growth part…
• At some point in 2008 there will be a revolt of users on Facebook (due to another invasive advertising scandal) resulting in a large dropoff of traffic. It will return to normal in under two weeks.
  I was way off on the “large dropoff” part as well as the “invasive advertising” - but this summer’s redesign pissed off a lot of users. But of course those upset went onto Facebook to complain…
• More small, specifically focused, social networks will pop-up in the first half of the year. By the years’ end they will start going to way of friendster and the big networks will gobble them up.
  Google’s Ning (small social network creator) was huge this year. And although many haven’t been gobbled up, the cream has certainly remained at the top.
• Google’s Open Social will help all of this happen as it will make it simpler to build small specialty social networks interoperable, but it will also make it simple for the big networks to adapt their features and user bases.
  Hit! Read here.
• MySpace will continue to look more and more like Facebook with each redesign; Facebook will stubbornly not change their look, resulting in third-party applications for customizing the look (think of Skins or Themes) of your Facebook portal.
  Myspace’s recent redesign is strikingly similar to Facebook. And Facebook changed its layout, but not its look. I still think this one is on the way.
• Social Networking will take its first real steps into the mobile world through applications, not miniature browser portals. Beyond the simple apps or mobile sites out now, MySpace, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc, will all have their on client-server apps for Windows Mobile, Android, Symbian, and other dumbphones.
  This was a definite hit. With the iPhone app store there are now MySpace and Facebook apps for iPhones - and similar applications for Android, Symbian, and Windows Mobile. And I was certainly correct that this would be a real step: one million status updates in a day…

Blogs

• Sifry (Technorati) will report the existence of over 100 million blogs and a new quarter million created daily.
  133 million total - and blah blah blah new ones per day. Reason for the “blah” - see next prediction.
• Bloggers will no longer put up with Technorati’s inconsistent service- a clone will steal the market by offering similar service with better functionality.
  Yup. And there are now many better offerings… let’s just go with Guy Kawasaki’s AllTop for starters.
• More celebs, athletes, and high-profile figures will start blogging as themselves.
  Definite hit. Twitter has helped this too - but check out this post for examples.
• Due to Gawker Media’s (Gizmodo, Valleywag, Wonkette, Consumerist, Kotaku, etc) new commission system for its bloggers, posting will decrease to a readable amount. This will also make Gawker and Valleywag writers stoop to paparazzi-like tactics to get new stories. It won’t be good.
  To avoid any further discussion on this one- let’s just say “yes” I’m totally correct.
• I’ll keep up the posts for a while, until I get too busy and frustrated that I don’t have time. Then I’ll write a big come-back post apologizing and be extra witty for two straight weeks. This process will repeat a month later.
  I was wrong here. I mean: yes- I stopped posting frequently. But no- I never apologized, nor did I get “extra witty”
• When GTA IV comes out I will not post for an entire week.
  This was less of a prediction and more of a warning.

Mobile Phones

• Apple will release the second gen iPhone. It will come in 8 and 16gb varieties, both sporting 3g HSDPA (high speed download packet access) but not HSUPA (same thing but with Upload).
  100% correct. iPhone 3G.
• Apple will institute stricter measures to ensure the new iPhone can’t be jailbroken or unlocked. Less than 5 days after release the iPhone will be jailbroken and unlocked.
  Close. It took eight days.
• Android phones will run on ATT, TMobile and VZW. They will be disappointing at first, but by the end of 2008 will be solid competitors in the market.
  I’m especially sad to be wrong about this one. TMobile got exclusive rights - which pushed off any competitors (and arguably killed the initial development frenzy that could have made it more powerful)
• HTC’s first “gPhone” will be called ugly by the mass media, mainly because they have no idea what a pda-phone is supposed to look like.
  Here’s some food for your mind-grapes: “Ugly“
• Google’s Android competition will be won by a pretty simple application that already exists for Windows Mobile. People will ignore this fact and be wowed by its functionality.
  I couldn’t be more happy to be so wrong. The Android competition produced some awesomely innovative apps. Check them out here.
• Windows Mobile 7 will be leaked and sadly it will be a disappointment. The interface will be drastically improved, but the functionality will remain sluggish.
  Now here’s one that I’m quite suprised about. Windows 7 was not only NOT leaked, but it was pushed back a FULL YEAR at the minimum. But, to keep my prediction streak alive, I was pretty close when applied to the previously unmentioned Windows Mobile 6.5
• HTC will release a 5mp Camera phone. Nokia will release an 11mp camera phone.
  HTC’s first 5mp Camera Phone was released this fall: the TouchHD. But it wasn’t Nokia with the crazy camera phone - that goes to Samsung with its upcoming 12mp Marvel.
• A large amount of standard phones released in 2008 will have touch screen capabilities. Others will have qwerty pads.
  This prediction is so accurate that it almost sounds dumb today. But a year ago - pretty much only PDA phones had touch screens and/or keyboards.
• Bluetooth stereo headsets will gain style points - and bluetooth phone headsets will finally stop sounding so crappy.
  How the hell is this one not right? Why do bluetooth headseats still suck? I can’t believe it, but I’m wrong here.
• Sprint’s WiMax will still suck and fail to roll-out.
  Hahahahahahahaha. I’m sorry, but seriously guys. Come on!
• Here’s a biggie: Google will win the 700mhz Auction for over $8 Billion (I’ll write a lot more on this later)
  Ugh. I was wrong. There - I said it. Verizon won the auction - and got the C block for a mere $4.5 billion. Chump change. Hopefully some good comes of this…

Web TV

• The continuing spread of Fiber Optics will help IPTV exist through set top boxes thanks to ATT and Verizon (now roll-out in Boston!)
  Notice how I didn’t predict Verizon FiOS to roll-out in Boston, but angrily stated it? That’s because it still hasn’t happened. But the rest did.
• The networks will continue to adapt their online offerings (see: Hulu), learning that iTunes is a horrible deal for everyone (but apple).
  Who even needs cable anymore?
• YouTube spin-offs will keep popping up- the successful ones will be acquired, the unsuccessful ones will fail miserably.
  This is the one prediction that I don’t really understand anymore. I think I meant Hulu like sites… but it seems like everything in online video is doing well these days.
• User Generated Content will always be funny and a huge part of online video, but as hosting sites adapt HD standards there will be a larger market for “Straight to Download”, professionally generated content. People will have trouble adopting this in 2008, mistakenly relating it to “Straight to Video”.
  The “Straight to Download” concept floated around a bit - and we’re now starting to see shows debut online - which is both awesome and pretty close to my prediction.
• Online video will start dropping the in-program commercials in favor of over-lay advertising. Some sites will do this well and will be popular. Some sites will integrate far too invasive overlays and upset viewers.
  Yep. YouTube rolled this out - and has done it quite well (at least compared to pre-rolls. Please, let me never encounter a pre-roll again…)
• XBOX 360 will finally gain full IPTV features.
  Sadly wrong. But the kickass Netflix integration paved the way for future streaming apps.
• Viral marketing will become even stranger and more random, resulting in a completetly misconstrued add which crosses line in the Controversial/Funny bell-curve and gives the company more negative publicity than anything else.
  This probably happened- but I’m afraid to search for examples.

General Tech

• Apple will release an “ultra portable” laptop - it will weigh around 2lbs and have a 9-10″ screen.
  Close… The MacBook Air is 3lbs and has a 13″ screen.
• Asus will release a follow up to the Eee PC, at 9″ and 2.5lbs. The two computers will be put head-to-head by every one of the big tech blogs.
  100% right about the eee PC 901 - but unfortunately I can’t find a picture of the MBA and the eee next to each other… so we’ll scratch this one.
• HDDVD vs BlueRay will not be resolved. The 150 early adopters of each will be pissed. The general public will be happy during holiday season 2008 when prices on each drops below $150.
  HA! I actually remember when this post was published in February thinking to myself “crap… this one is going to look really dumb in my 2008 predictions post…”. But at least I was right about the price drop for the holiday season… no- still sucks to be so wrong.
• LCD TV prices will continue to fall as the first OLED and SED TVs hit the consumer market (at astronomical prices).
  OLED TVs hit the US this year and at outrageous prices - and LCD prices indeed continued to fall.
• The PS3 will drop in price again, reaching $350. Then it will be release in a variety of colors.
  Only two colors - and still $400. Also - still overpriced.
• The Nintendo Wii shortage will get better, but it still won’t be easy to find one.
  True.
• A new Wii will be released by December 2008 and it will come in multiple colors, will have a built in DVD drive and multimedia capabilities… but you won’t be able to get one anywhere.
  False! Damnit. Why not!?
• 2008 will be a slow year for the iPod, but each current version will be re-released in a new array of colors.
  Pretty close. Many called the iPod nano an incremental upgrade… but it comes in lots of fun colors!
• GMail will up each user’s server space to 10GB and will provide an option to upload files for them to host. The service will be free.
  It’s only up to 7+GB - and while this service exists and is free, Google hasn’t yet rolled out its version.
• Digg will be bought by a big corporation - and its users will flee requiring the big company to reinvent a user-supported community. This will fail.
  This prediction will fail. Digg thrwarts potential buyers.
• More tech Venture Capitalists will follow the FunnyorDie.com model and invest in Hollywood. This will also fail.
  This happened, briefly, but no one really seemed to care.
• Quad core computers will be more widely available and affordable. People will still find Vista to be bulky and slow.
  I’m sick of Vista bashing. I’m leaving this one untouched.
• XP will still be an option for new laptops at the end of 2008.
  XP will still be an option for new laptops until May 30th, 2009
• Linux will continue to gain market share (maybe as large as 3%) through sales of notebooks and desktops at Walmart and Target.
  Big win here. Completely accurate.

And that’s it!

I think I could have been a little more aggressive on some of the predictions - but overall I’m pretty proud at how I did here (aside from the HD-DVD pick… ugh. I’ll never let myself live this one down). In the end it looks like I’m batting a little above 600 - not amazing, but fun nevertheless.

As for 2009 predictions? Well, I’m working on that one. But actually getting paid for it this time… so unfortunately that means they won’t show up here any time soon.

But I’ll give you a little hint at a big prediction to tide you over: Betamax and HDDVD merge to create a Voltron-like format that takes over the world… get ready for it.

In the coming months I will likely be working on a Forrester Research document covering different types of advertising with video games and being a true professional, I decided to dedicate a full afternoon this past weekend playing as many video games as possible - to get a better understanding of just what these things are all about (yes, I do love my job).

I currently have an Xbox 360 and a Wii, so to warm up I decide to spend a few hours of killing Nazi Zombies in Call of Duty: 16 World at War on my Xbox. Then I moved onto Halo 3 where I was verbally assaulted by a very angry girl 12 year old boy. So I switched over to the Wii and played a few rounds of Tiger Woods, became completely enamored with World of Goo (thanks Jammo for the recommendation!), and finally decided to switch back to the Xbox 360 and settle on playing some video game soccer.

Quick side story: I’m a long time soccer gamer, been playing since the original diagonal-scrolling FIFA International Soccer, and had been a loyal FIFA player, until the game got all arcadey in 2005, at which point I switched to PES and have never looked back… until this year… and after a long and poorly fought battle, I idiotically own both FIFA ‘09 and PES 2009… Anyway- it’s weird the way you can only like one. It’s like Pepsi and Coke, or Nike and Reebok. Somehow we pledge our allegiance and follow accordingly.

Ok, back to the point of this post.

So I’m playing an early round Champions League game of Real Madrid vs. Galatasary (yes, I know that choosing Real Madrid is lame- but I went to a game at Santiago Berenbeu a few years ago and wanted to see what the digital stadium looked like… give me a break!), and a few minutes into the first half I notice something strange.

See anything odd about this picture? No? Well let me remind you that I’m playing PES 2009 on an Xbox 360… now look again, a little closer:

Yep: that’s an add for Playstation… on my Xbox 360. What?

For Sony (makers of the Playstation), this is completely wasted advertising spend. Playstation and Xbox are similarly polarized like Pepsi and Coke. You are allowed to like one or the other - certainly not both. And once you do choose your alliance, you are instructed to look down on the other platform. Therefore this is some of the worst targeted advertising I’ve ever seen. I mean, can you imagine going to the Apple website to buy an iPod and see banner ads for Zunes?

So what went wrong? Did Sony purposefully put Playstation ads on an Xbox game? I can’t imagine. But, did Sony pay an ad agency to place ads in video games, without checking where the ads were going? Very likely. What do you think happened?

But anyway, at least I noticed the ad in the first place and that’s better than I can say for most advertising. Step 1: get people to notice ads. Step 2: target ads so they make sense!

Well that’s it from me - I’m off to play more video games do more research for work.

Hope everyone has a happy, healthy, safe, and wonderful holiday season. Enjoy!

Only three days after posting this comment about how I don’t fully utilize my 10 month old eee PC, it was stolen from my bedside table during what I can only assume was the most-drugged-out robbery of all time.

Yes, my apartment in a Beacon Hill brownstone was broken into last week - I came home from work to find my apartment door broken off the hinges and the place in half-disarray. I say “half” because somehow (luckily) the thieves didn’t make it into the living room where video games and electronics are, but managed to ransack my fiancee’s jewelry box (interjected side note to crooks: I’m normally not a violent person, but if I EVER come across you wearing my fiancee’s grandmother’s ring, or her twenty first birthday watch then you had better hope the police arrive quickly) and they happened to take my change dish containing less than $3.50, but miss the digital camera sitting near it.

If you want more of the depressingness of this story- you can check out my twitter feed from last Thursday on through the weekend… but I don’t suggest doing that. It got pretty mopey, I think. (Second side note: Thanks so much to all the twitter support from my tweople - it helped to know others have been through this kind of mess and have survived to tell about it. Seriously, thank you twitter support group!)

So anyway, the point of this post. I want to talk about my stolen netbook. I want to tell everyone how awesome it was - because my last blog post might have reflected negatively on it- and that’s not fair to be the last thing I’ve said about it. I loved my little netbook. And here’s why:

• It was uber-gadgety. The number of times people actually stopped to look at it, or marveled at its minuscule size was more than any other gadget I’ve owned. It became a burden, because I could never use it without having to explain its size first, but that’s the fun in cool gadgets, right?
• I suped it up. The EEE cost me $400 when it came out - which is peanuts for a laptop. But within a month I added: $60 for 2GB of RAM, $60 for an additional 8GB of memory, and $80 to import in a Touchscreen and microcontroller kit. I had plans for more suping (LED keyboard light and improved heatsinks) but never had a chance. These additions made the little guy as awesome as it was - and I’m sure the robbers will never even notice the second hard drive.
• It booted XP in under 20 seconds. I swear: one time I got it to boot in 16. No joke. I slipstreamed and configured the lightest XP build possible - and tweaked the startup process so severely that I could get a Firefox window going and figure out the Final Jeopardy answer before the end of the song (not that I ever did… but it was good to know that I could!). I promise you that the crooks will never notice the difference.
• It ran XP smoothly. My EEE came with the Xandros OS - which I liked, but wanted more. Also, I like to tinker… so here’s the progression of operating systems on my netbook: Xandros, XP Pro (full), XP Pro (NP Lited), Xandros, Ubuntu, eeeXUbuntu, eeeBuntu, Kubuntu, XP Pro (custom 20 second boot build). It’s worth noting that I like weekend projects… (click that picture - it’s awesome.)
• I was used to typing on the little keyboard. Sure, it took me a month of constant use (and lots of typos), but I got used to it. I’m guessing it will take the robbers a long time to figure it out. Or a very short time to sell the thing…
• It was insanely portable. Ultimately the EEE’s selling point was also its demise: it could easily be picked up and taken wherever. Including some crack den or pawn shop. But while it was mine I loved that I could throw it in a bag without worry (Solid Slate HD means no moving parts!) and it was so light I would forget it was there.

And many, many more reasons. See, as much as it might not have been the perfect computer for me- I made it my perfect computer. I still used my home desktop for other computing needs and have a jumbo laptop for (presumed) portability. But the netbook was a perfect for couch surfing, flights, quick meetings, killing time, playing games, and throwing in a bag to have internet wherever I went. It was awesome.

So that’s it. I’ll miss you, little guy.

Netbooks (tiny laptops that are mainly functional for little beyond web use (internet + notebook = netbook)) are all the rage right now, as noted yesterday by Michael Gartenberg’s post on Amazon’s Bestselling Computer page.

The concept behind the success comes from three main factors:

1. Dirt cheap ($300 - 500)
2. Super portable (7-10″ screens and generally less than 4lbs)
3. Seriously, DIRT CHEAP!

The netbook price point is so significantly lower than standard laptops, it’s a new paradigm of computing. I know you can do this simple math too, but think about what a $300 laptop means.

$300 is the same price as a new 16gb iPhone 3G. It’s about half the price of most new high-powered smartphones. It’s less than 1/3rd of the cheapest Apple computer out there and about 1/6 the price of Apple’s base model MacBook Air (similarly targeted as an easily portable, lightweight machine). It’s cheaper than most monitors. About 40% cheaper than Dell’s cheapest desktop (and yes, Dell makes a Netbook now too, and it’s pretty awesome).

The minuscule price is an enormous selling point. So enticing that I actually bought one (picked up an Asus eeePC for around $300 last January). But the low price comes at a cost (what a stupid sentence… sorry about that).

After spending only $300 on a laptop, it’s very, very difficult to justify accessories. An additional batter for $65? Well that’s over 20% of the computer itself! No way. An external hard drive to back up data- $100… um, that’s 1/3rd the cost. Hell, even an external keyboard and mouse combo (necessary because of the tiny keyboard) - $80? That’s just too much.

Similarly, $300 makes other products seem ridiculous. Let’s take UMPCs (ultra mobile personal computers - the next step smaller than netbooks) or MIDs (mobile internet devices). These tiny, but awesome little devices do pretty much the same thing as netbooks, but are just a little smaller and generally have a touchscreen - are basically more powerful PDAs. Unfortunately, UMPCs also cost about 3-10x the price of a netbook! Sure, tiny is cool, but is it ten times as cool!? And don’t even get me started on the Less Function for More Money Foleo or the Celeo Redfly… seriously: don’t.

And what about PDAs (which we’ll assume are part of a phone… because who uses a PDA anymore?) - as mentioned above, most high-powered devices cost significantly more than a netbook. Yes, they add the ability to call people… but should your phone cost more than your laptop?

(For size reference: PDA < MID < UMPC < Netbook < Breadbox < Laptop < Desktop)

To try something new today, I want to open this up. I’m not going to conclude anything.

So, there is no doubt that netbooks are selling like sugar-coated hot cakes, but what I want to know is: where is this trend going? Will netbooks drive down the price of other electronics? Will the fad pass and more functional laptops prevail? Will everyone buy tiny laptops and the market for full-sized devices disappear?

What do you think?