Ampers & Dot

Alright, I’m getting pretty sick of starting every post with “sorry I haven’t posted in a while” and what’s worse is that I’m heading out of town and likely won’t post anything new for another eight days. So damn, I’ve already started to slide. But tell you what: I’m going to make up for it! . . . eventually. Not yet though.

Today is a topic about which I’m greatly excited. There will be a few crazy terms, a few insane numbers, and a lot of speculation, but one thing’s for sure: this is a topic that will change your life.

The FCC’s Auction 73: the 700 megahertz spectrum.

Let’s get into it. First off, what is the 700mhz spectrum? This is the frequency on which old TV signal is transferred. You know the way you can hook up an antennae to a TV and have a few channels pop up? That’s the 700mhz spectrum.

Why is it for sale? Because the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) ruled that all TV signals must be digital by February 17, 2009 - leaving all old analog signals completely unused.

Why would someone want this spectrum? It’s already deployed all throughout the US and has capabilities for insanely fast data transfer. Now here’s where the fun part comes in: fast data transfer speeds in vast parts of America = much, much more than analog TV. This means practically unlimited mobile implications. Cell phones can operate on this spectrum and they would be able to do hundreds (to thousands) of times the download/upload capacity of current generation devices. I’ll get to more of this in a minute.

Who would want this? Everyone. Right now the top contenders are: Verizon (to expand its already strong rural cell coverage and remain the “largest network in blah blah blah”), AT&T (to expand its fairly crappy rural coverage, have even “a couple of bars in a some places” and increase the capabilities of pretty junky smartphones), Frontline Wireless (a startup run by an old-school Apple exec), and … GOOGLE.

Why would Google want the 700mhz Spectrum? To deploy Android, its mobile phone platform. See, Google’s android will be on all networks- this will be an operating system (like Windows or OSX), but for phones- and if Google wins the auction then they control the standards which will be set for any Android phones. If Android can perform perfectly only on the fastest network then Google ends up owning anyone that wants to use its platform… which is everyone. Even if AT&T has a phone running Android, it will need a slice of fast-data-pie to truly utilize the device, so they’ll be forced to turn to the big GOOG for help.

How much money are we talking about? Loads. Absolute loads of money. The reserve price for all five chunks (this is an entire story in itself…) is well over $10 Billion. The main chunk the biggies are fighting for (C chunk) has a reserve of $4.8B alone. As I predicted in my 2008 Predictions Post, Google will win with a bid around $8B. I’m not sure now if my predicted bid price will be met, but if Google buys another chunk… I might be right on.

So what? Why should you actually care?

Short (and confusing) answer: the FCC has ruled that part of this spectrum MUST be “open access”, meaning that “Locked” cell phones, those tied directly to a carrier, are obsolete. Any manufacturer will be able to make a device that runs on this network. No more choosing GSM or CDMA, with an entirely open network, manufacturers can make insane devices that will run on with incredibly fast data speeds… for everyone almost everywhere in America.

Sit with me for a second here as I step back in time (to a few decades before I was born…) and I’ll quote Popular Science’s take on this:

“The last time the government made a change like this was 40 years ago, when the FCC forced telephone companies to open up their lines to third-party products. It wasn’t until after the landline system went open-access that products like answering machines, fax machines and modems hit the market.“

My takeaway on all this: opening up the network means more advancements. This will be a paradigm shift in the way we use mobile gadgets. Imagine having connection speeds beyond WiFi, anywhere you go, inside or outside. Voice over IP will be simple. Video Phones will stream perfectly. TV on your mobile device will not just be lag-free, it will load instantaneously. Internet: everywhere. Internet enabled devices: everything.

Finally: when? This Thursday and Friday. The biggy telcos (and google) will be battling it out in a fairly traditional auction format (add an online component though…) in hour long chunks of bidding, until Friday afternoon when there will be one victor (for each chunk).

But honestly: I don’t care what company ends up bidding the most, all that matters is that it will be the consumers that win this round. And I just can’t wait to see the gadgets that come out of all this! For more reading… heavy and nerdy, check out the FCC site

Enjoy! . . . see you in a week.

With the plethora of news on social networking recently, it’s pretty fair to say that it has truly become part of mainstream society. No longer just for IRC junkies looking to discuss last week’s Battlestar Galactica (although I’m sure there’s a channel for that), or hackers in their mom’s basement sharing conspiracy theories, (actually, you don’t even really need to be computer literate any more…) social networking is for everyone.

Let’s actually take this a few steps further. Facebook, which I was introduced to the spring of ‘05 and takes its name from the directories of students given to college freshman, is no longer just for college students; MySpace, usually known for its shadiness, is now a strong focus of some political campaigns; and during this time, LinkedIn, generally known for being the most “professional” of the social networks, is doing everything it can to keep up with the less-than professional networks.

Everyone is social networking now: from kids to parents, students to grandparents. They’re all out there.

And that’s the probem: growing popularity only means growing risk. Sure, there were a lot of people who got away (or didn’t) with terrible and illegal activity on the early days of MySpace, mainly because no one was watching. But now there is such a large web out there that predators (not just the type that Chris Hansen catches) are flocking to social networks in search of new pray. As much as “authorities” are trying to monitor what’s going on online, there is only such a finite amount that can be done at this p0int.

Let’s site some examples I found around the web during the last few weeks.

• Facebook found (and subsequently fixed) a gaping security hole opening up account settings
• Facebook’s  development API  was  utilized to create the social network’s first Malware (that actually took a month longer than I would have guessed)
• CrimeinCharlotte.com, a well titled site, collected images off of local teens’ MySpace pages which depict gangs or illegal activities. Seriously, are people that stupid?
• If you haven’t heard of the Megan Meier saga, read about it here.  It’s sad and disturbing- and shows how MySpace can be horribly exploited (though I still completely side that myspace did nothing wrong and this mom should be in Jail for doing that to a 13 year old girl)

Well here’s where this rant takes strange twist, which is actually the point to this entire post: MySpace is actually the responsible one in this story.

Today, MySpace announced that they will be spearheading a new “industry wide internet safety technical taskforce”, aimed at making it safer for people of all ages (primarily minors) to engage in the participatory web.

This taskforce is targeting age-verification, alternate social media sites to deter minors from the masses, stronger parental involvement, and better education on online risks and avoidance.

TechCrunch has a great piece on what this taskforce will mean to the other networks beyond MySpace.  And you know what: I’m impressed.

This needed to happen.  As funny as Dateline NBC’s “To Catch a Predator” is, you have to remember that for each online sexual predator they catch, there are probably a dozen they didn’t.  That’s just scary.

Although I’m obviously skeptical of where this will go and what will truly come of it, someone has needed to step in for a long time.  This is going to be the starting point for the future of social networking regulations- which is a strange and uncharted area and I can only say that I’m ambivalently interested to see where it goes.

Now if someone can only explain to me how they’re going to improve age verification, I’d really appreciate it.  And just remember that “A parent’s approval” is easier to forge online than in person…

LAST NOTE: MacWorld is tomorrow.  I’m not a crazy Apple fan- but I love watching what Jobs pushes out each year.  12pm Eastern Time is when Steve’s keynote begins.  Check out Gizmodo (biggest apple fanboys?) site- they’ll likely liveblog it.

CES is wrapping up (if you didn’t know what CES stands for then you might not enjoy this overly nerdy gadget related post…) and if I didn’t write up a summary then I just wouldn’t be fulfilling my responsibility. There’s so much to talk about and I’ve been having a tough time getting my head around all the gadgetry fun and electronically focused awesomeness.

The great part about CES is that it gives gadget-geeks, like myself, a hint at what to expect for the next 12 months. CES is the first leak of all the upcoming devices and toys fr the upcoming year. There’s always a big announcement, that gets everyone all riled up (this year it was Panasonic’s 150 inch TV) but the bigger story of CES are the common themes and trends.

See, one big announcement is fun and all, but rarely is it actually all that as influential. Panasonic’s elephant-sized TV is cool and all, but it also costs nearly $1000 per square inch… how is that remotely applicable to “Consumers”? Don’t get me wrong, I’m ridiculously impressed by a 150 inch HDTV, but what I like about CES the most is seeing what a great deal of companies found to be important to showcase at this … showcase.

So let’s just into the trends that I noted while reading over 2,600 gadget related blog posts during the last four days (that is not an exaggeration).

Thin is in

And no, I’m definitely not talking about Nicole Richie…
The 150″ behemoth may have taken the blue ribbon in the “Holy $(&%” award, but second place surely goes to Pioneer’s 9mm thin TV (no, that wasn’t a typo: nine millimeters) . JVC also announced their 1.5″ thin, 46 wide TV, which will hit shelves this summer. OLED TVs (what we’ll all be replacing LCDs with in four years) were also a rage, seeing as they have amazing clarity along with zero weight or thickness. Both Samsung and Sony unveiled their consumer models this year.

Touchscreen

The single biggest trend of CES 2008: touchscreen everything. Since the iPhone’s announcement a year ago (not at CES, but at MacWorld - more on this later in the week), everyone’s been scrambling to launch a fun touchable gadget. I mean, sure- Windows Mobile has been touch screen for year, but Apple does it and everyone needs to copy…

Basically you couldn’t show a prototype phone at CES unless it had a touchscreen this year. Just look at the following examples: iRiver (makes phones?), Samsung, NeoNode (not-yet-stateside), and many, many more. (And yes, for the record- I did predict this one in my 2008 predictions post.)

There were also touchscreens included in picture frames, video cameras, remotes,and tables. And I’m not even getting into all the Tablet PCs, which were everywhere, because I am going to talk about…

MIDs and UMPCs

Mobile Internet Devices (a term coined by Intel, I believe, to rebrand Ultra Mobile Portable Computers for consumers) are, in my opinion, the coolest and most promising technology out there right now. This is the future, so it was really exciting to see numerous companies take a stab at tiny computers this year.

Asus had a weird looking model, LimePC showed a generically awesome looking model, Samsung announced their new Q1 model and a smaller, less versatile device. iRiver showed an impressively (but maybe too) small device, while LG’s gadget may have stolen my vote, that is- if the HTC’s shift weren’t finally unveiled. I still don’t really get the WiBrain (either by name or formfactor) but like always the OQO (this time with WiMax) wowed everyone. And Intels MID continues to amaze me.

Ultraportable

In case “Ultramobile” is too small for you, how about “Ultraportable”? This is basically a teensy-tiny laptop… who would want one of these things?! I just don’t get it. Oh, wait- I’m writing this on an EeePC… (expect a fun post about this when I hve some time). Because it’s awesome. Oh and the new Eee was leaked this week, along with the following other Ultraportables: Fujitsu’s u810, E-Lead’s Noahpad, and Everex’s Cloudbook.

SO WHAT?

These trends will directly shape the next year of gadget releases. The same way last year’s 103″ tv inspired the 150″, the future will see the following: thin and large tvs; touchscreens on everything; smaller computers; a blurring line between cell-phones and computers.

Overall I rate this year’s CES as one of the best. There really wasn’t one thing that stood out as shockingly cool to me, but I’m more excited to see a lot of companies following trends. The more electronics manufacturers that support the development of these gadgets, the more competitive the market will be. And in no time the technology will adapt and improve into even cooler devices and at some point I’ll actually be able to play with these fun things.

Oh, and if you haven’t yet seen the video from Bill Gates’ final CES Keynote speech- go spend the next five minutes laughing.

I’ve been working on a fun CES post aiming to discuss the cool gadgetry flowing out of the Vegas Convention Center, but something caught my attention that I just had to write about immediately… Xerox’s new logo. So what is a Web 2.0 log? Is it an interactive logo? A logo that accepts comments? Or has its own RSS feed? The answer is that a Web 2.0 logo is a catchy term that some design person used to make an easy sale…

After 40+ years, Xerox retired it’s 8bit logo in favor of a sleeker looking version (read the corporate ra-ra here on the NYT). Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for Xerox changing their logo- I mean, the old one seemed to imply that using their copiers would result in some lossy version that would skew your image… that really need to die a long time ago. So first off, great job on getting rid of that, 38 years too late. But here’s what I think is funny about all this, wrapped up in a quote from the NYT article

Simon Williams, president of the consulting firm Sterling Brands, said he thought the new logo was a home run. “Xerox just isn’t an old, fusty copier company anymore, but I’ll bet it is often still seen that way,” he said. “The lower-case name will be less intimidating, more about dialog than about being authoritative. And the logoptic” — meaning the ball — “adds energy, youthfulness and dynamism.”

That’s just amazing. Doesn’t that rounded ball look youthful and dynamic!?

In all fairness though: that’s how marketing works. You’ve got execs who have spent so long working up to their senior position that they’ve become too far out of touch with their actual consumers. All it takes is one good ad guy (think of Mad Men) and your company has a new logo that gets described as “less intimidating”.

But here’s where this story gets fun: Mashable’s commentary on the new logo. First off, I’m not knocking Mashable- I think they do a great job of breaking down the story and explaining that Xerox is reinventing themselves to show they do much more than make copiers. That’s fine.

What’s less fine is their overuse of “Web 2.0″. Although it’s correctly used a few times in the article, the entire piece gives off the idea that a logo can be “web 2.0″. What is that? Curved edges? Or fewer vowels? How about pastels, or clean edges? You’ve heard me rant about this before: here and here.

(Un)fortunately, someone beat me to the punchline of all this - a commenter on the Mashable post linked this page of “Web2logos” which I find hilarious. There really are design companies making a killing right now because no one wants to be left behind in the old web, but the problem arises that a new logo does not mean new features.

And that’s the point. It seems to me that all companies are realizing that interactivity is the new “must-have”. But it seems more often than not, companies aren’t sure how to adapt to an interactive model (either through lack of resources, lack of understanding, or lack of an applicable product), so instead they put up this falsified image that they are in-touch, through means such as a new logo.

In short: I like new logos, I like Xerox (they make nice copies!) and I actually think they were due for a makeover. But I’d also like to see them use this as a spring-board to promote their new features and show people what really sets them apart from their competitors- not just rely on a logo to get Redbull-drinking teenagers interested in toner cartridges.

In the end thoguh, I just really hope we never see a social networking component to copy machines… (”Xerox is… jammed in section R36″ or “Current Mood: sad, low on ink.”).

**UPDATE** Thanks, Drew for the comment on the xbox 360 logo similarities…

It’s that time of the year and everyone’s doing it… that’s right: time for some predictions on the future of tech! One of the main aspects that attracts me to tech is that it’s always evolving which means there is always something new to learn. As most of you know, I love to talk about this stuff and really enjoy taking the information that is widely available out there and putting it all together to guess where things are going.

The following predictions (sorted by tech category) come as a result of a lot of research, a bit of professional experience, and a large amount of guessing… So here we go.

Social Networks

• Facebook will continue to grow, reaching over 80 Million registered users
• At some point in 2008 there will be a revolt of users on Facebook (due to another invasive advertising scandal) resulting in a large dropoff of traffic. It will return to normal in under two weeks.
• More small, specifically focused, social networks will pop-up in the first half of the year. By the years’ end they will start going to way of friendster and the big networks will gobble them up.
• Google’s Open Social will help all of this happen as it will make it simpler to build small specialty social networks interoperable, but it will also make it simple for the big networks to adapt their features and user bases.
• MySpace will continue to look more and more like Facebook with each redesign; Facebook will stubbornly not change their look, resulting in third-party applications for customizing the look (think of Skins or Themes) of your Facebook portal.
• Social Networking will take its first real steps into the mobile world through applications, not miniature browser portals. Beyond the simple apps or mobile sites out now, MySpace, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc, will all have their on client-server apps for Windows Mobile, Android, Symbian, and other dumbphones.

Blogs

• Sifry (Technorati) will report the existence of over 100 million blogs and a new quarter million created daily.
• Bloggers will no longer put up with Technorati’s inconsistent service- a clone will steal the market by offering similar service with better functionality.
• More celebs, athletes, and high-profile figures will start blogging as themselves.
• Due to Gawker Media’s (Gizmodo, Valleywag, Wonkette, Consumerist, Kotaku, etc) new commission system for its bloggers, posting will decrease to a readable amount. This will also make Gawker and Valleywag writers stoop to paparazzi-like tactics to get new stories. It won’t be good.
• I’ll keep up the posts for a while, until I get too busy and frustrated that I don’t have time. Then I’ll write a big come-back post apologizing and be extra witty for two straight weeks. This process will repeat a month later.
• When GTA IV comes out I will not post for an entire week.

Mobile Phones

• Apple will release the second gen iPhone. It will come in 8 and 16gb varieties, both sporting 3g HSDPA (high speed download packet access) but not HSUPA (same thing but with Upload).
• Apple will institute stricter measures to ensure the new iPhone can’t be jailbroken or unlocked. Less than 5 days after release the iPhone will be jailbroken and unlocked.
• Android phones will run on ATT, TMobile and VZW. They will be disappointing at first, but by the end of 2008 will be solid competitors in the market.
• HTC’s first “gPhone” will be called ugly by the mass media, mainly because they have no idea what a pda-phone is supposed to look like.
• Google’s Android competition will be won by a pretty simple application that already exists for Windows Mobile. People will ignore this fact and be wowed by its functionality.
• Windows Mobile 7 will be leaked and sadly it will be a disappointment. The interface will be drastically improved, but the functionality will remain sluggish.
• HTC will release a 5mp Camera phone. Nokia will release an 11mp camera phone.
• A large amount of standard phones released in 2008 will have touch screen capabilities. Others will have qwerty pads.
• Bluetooth stereo headsets will gain style points - and bluetooth phone headsets will finally stop sounding so crappy.
• Sprint’s WiMax will still suck and fail to roll-out.
• Here’s a biggie: Google will win the 700mhz Auction for over $8 Billion (I’ll write a lot more on this later)

Web TV

• The continuing spread of Fiber Optics will help IPTV exist through set top boxes thanks to ATT and Verizon (now roll-out in Boston!)
• The networks will continue to adapt their online offerings (see: Hulu), learning that iTunes is a horrible deal for everyone (but apple).
• YouTube spin-offs will keep popping up- the successful ones will be acquired, the unsuccessful ones will fail miserably.
• User Generated Content will always be funny and a huge part of online video, but as hosting sites adapt HD standards there will be a larger market for “Straight to Download”, professionally generated content. People will have trouble adopting this in 2008, mistakenly relating it to “Straight to Video”.
• Online video will start dropping the in-program commercials in favor of over-lay advertising. Some sites will do this well and will be popular. Some sites will integrate far too invasive overlays and upset viewers.
• XBOX 360 will finally gain full IPTV features
• Viral marketing will become even stranger and more random, resulting in a completetly misconstrued add which crosses line in the Controversial/Funny bell-curve and gives the company more negative publicity than anything else.

General Tech

• Apple will release an “ultra portable” laptop - it will weigh around 2lbs and have a 9-10″ screen.
• Asus will release a follow up to the Eee PC, at 9″ and 2.5lbs. The two computers will be put head-to-head by every one of the big tech blogs.
• HDDVD vs BlueRay will not be resolved. The 150 early adopters of each will be pissed. The general public will be happy during holiday season 2008 when prices on each drops below $150.
• LCD TV prices will continue to fall as the first OLED and SED TVs hit the consumer market (at astronomical prices).
• The PS3 will drop in price again, reaching $350. Then it will be release in a variety of colors.
• The Nintendo Wii shortage will get better, but it still won’t be easy to find one.
• A new Wii will be released by December 2008 and it will come in multiple colors, will have a built in DVD drive and multimedia capabilities… but you won’t be able to get one anywhere.
• 2008 will be a slow year for the iPod, but each current version will be re-released in a new array of colors.
• GMail will up each user’s server space to 10GB and will provide an option to upload files for them to host. The service will be free.
• Digg will be bought by a big corporation - and its users will flee requiring the big company to reinvent a user-supported community. This will fail.
• More tech Venture Capitalists will follow the FunnyorDie.com model and invest in Hollywood. This will also fail.
• Quad core computers will be more widely available and affordable. People will still find Vista to be bulky and slow.
• XP will still be an option for new laptops at the end of 2008.
• Linux will continue to gain market share (maybe as large as 3%) through sales of notebooks and desktops at Walmart and Target.

And that’s it

I’ve got a lot more floating around my head, but I think I’ve written enough that something has to end up being correct. My goal is to make this a static page, where I can cross things off as the year goes on. That should be pretty fun, I think.

Lastly, what do you think? I can back-up my thoughts on each of these, as not one is completely random. If you want some justification then ask- I’ll have fun with that. Any you wildly disagree with?

And really lastly- Starting on Sunday and running next week is my second favorite holiday of the year (right after Masters’ weekend but before Halloween) … that’s right: it’s Consumer Electronic Showcase week!!! My lifelong dream is to attend… but obviously that’s not happening this year, so expect some fun commentary as the week progresses.

Enjoy!